IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v133y2023ics0261560623000311.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An investment-based explanation of currency excess returns

Author

Listed:
  • Jamali, Ibrahim
  • Yamani, Ehab
  • Smallwood, Aaron D.

Abstract

This paper offers an investment-based explanation for currency excess returns using fundamental macroeconomic drivers emanating from physical investment across countries. To obtain valid factors for our proposed production model, we draw on an international investment-based asset-pricing model where representative firms in two countries choose structure and equipment capital to maximize profits. We empirically test the model for the factors constructed by sorting currencies based on differences in gross fixed capital formation, and investment in equipment and structures. Our findings show that the investment risk factors are priced in the cross-section of currency excess returns. The prices of risk associated with investment are negative and significant. This indicates that the currencies of countries with a higher sensitivity to investment risk earn lower excess returns. Furthermore, we show that this investment effect is not systematically related to the forward premium effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2023. "An investment-based explanation of currency excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:133:y:2023:i:c:s0261560623000311
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102830
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560623000311
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102830?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jermann, Urban J., 2010. "The equity premium implied by production," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 279-296, November.
    2. Gabaix, Xavier & Verdelhan, Adrien & Rancière, Romain & Farhi, Emmanuel & Fraiberger, Samuel P., 2009. "Crash Risk in Currency Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
    4. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 511-535, December.
    5. Tarek A Hassan & Thomas M Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2023. "A Risk-based Theory of Exchange Rate Stabilization," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(2), pages 879-911.
    6. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Kan, Raymond & Robotti, Cesare, 2019. "Too good to be true? Fallacies in evaluating risk factor models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 451-471.
    7. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Do Peso Problems Explain the Returns to the Carry Trade?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 853-891.
    8. Hassan, Tarek A. & Mertens, Thomas M. & Zhang, Tony, 2016. "Not so disconnected: Exchange rates and the capital stock," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 43-57.
    9. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
    10. John H Cochrane, 2021. "Rethinking Production under Uncertainty [Valuation risk and asset pricing]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 1-59.
    11. Coudert, Virginie & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "The “forward premium puzzle” and the sovereign default risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 491-511.
    12. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti & Jay Shanken, 2013. "Pricing Model Performance and the Two‐Pass Cross‐Sectional Regression Methodology," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2617-2649, December.
    13. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, April.
    14. Laura Xiaolei Liu & Toni M. Whited & Lu Zhang, 2009. "Investment-Based Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(6), pages 1105-1139, December.
    15. Victoria Dobrynskaya, 2014. "Downside Market Risk of Carry Trades," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1885-1913.
    16. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 268-285.
    17. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    18. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Robotti, Cesare, 2021. "Common pricing across asset classes: Empirical evidence revisited," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 292-324.
    19. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
    20. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    21. Jermann, Urban J., 2013. "A production-based model for the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 293-306.
    22. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    23. Lewellen, Jonathan & Nagel, Stefan & Shanken, Jay, 2010. "A skeptical appraisal of asset pricing tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 175-194, May.
    24. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2016. "Editor's Choice Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 1-52.
    25. Goncalves, Andrei & Xue, Chen & Zhang, Lu, 2017. "Aggregation, Capital Heterogeneity, and the Investment CAPM," Working Paper Series 2017-19, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    26. Francisco Barillas & Jay Shanken, 2018. "Comparing Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(2), pages 715-754, April.
    27. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
    28. Owen A. Lamont, 2000. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2719-2745, December.
    29. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    30. Craig Burnside, 2016. "Identification and Inference in Linear Stochastic Discount Factor Models with Excess Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 295-330.
    31. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2557-2596, December.
    32. Loriano Mancini & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2013. "Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market: Measurement, Commonality, and Risk Premiums," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(5), pages 1805-1841, October.
    33. Craig Burnside, 2011. "The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3456-3476, December.
    34. Jurek, Jakub W., 2014. "Crash-neutral currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 325-347.
    35. Lettau, Martin & Maggiori, Matteo & Weber, Michael, 2014. "Conditional risk premia in currency markets and other asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 197-225.
    36. Yuhang Xing, 2008. "Interpreting the Value Effect Through the Q-Theory: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1767-1795, July.
    37. Piyusha Mutreja, 2014. "Equipment And Structures Capital: Accounting For Income Differences," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 713-731, April.
    38. Belo, Frederico, 2010. "Production-based measures of risk for asset pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 146-163, March.
    39. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Global macro risks in currency excess returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 300-315.
    40. Tarek A. Hassan, 2013. "Country Size, Currency Unions, and International Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2269-2308, December.
    41. Daniel, Kent & Hodrick, Robert J. & Lu, Zhongjin, 2017. "The Carry Trade: Risks and Drawdowns," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 211-262, September.
    42. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Measures of global uncertainty and carry-trade excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 212-227.
    43. Pasquale Della Corte & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2161-2193.
    44. Ric Colacito & Max Croce & Steven Ho & Philip Howard, 2018. "BKK the EZ Way: International Long-Run Growth News and Capital Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(11), pages 3416-3449, November.
    45. Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 67-103, February.
    46. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    48. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    49. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    50. Li, Dongmei & Zhang, Lu, 2010. "Does q-theory with investment frictions explain anomalies in the cross section of returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 297-314, November.
    51. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    52. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
    53. Watanabe, Akiko & Xu, Yan & Yao, Tong & Yu, Tong, 2013. "The asset growth effect: Insights from international equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 529-563.
    54. Husted, Lucas & Rogers, John & Sun, Bo, 2018. "Uncertainty, currency excess returns, and risk reversals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 228-241.
    55. Cochrane, John H, 1996. "A Cross-Sectional Test of an Investment-Based Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 572-621, June.
    56. Qing Li & Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2006. "Sector Investment Growth Rates and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1637-1665, May.
    57. Kewei Hou & Haitao Mo & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2021. "An Augmented q-Factor Model with Expected Growth [Abnormal returns to a fundamental analysis strategy]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-41.
    58. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 209-237, March.
    59. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    60. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    61. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-692, September.
    62. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2016. "New Evidence on the Forward Premium Puzzle," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 875-897, June.
    63. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Naveed, Hafiz Muhammad & Pan, Yanchun & Yao, HongXing & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2024. "Assessing the nexus between currency exchange rate returns, currency risk hedging and international investments: Intelligent network-based analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vitaly Orlov, 2018. "Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades," Working Papers on Finance 1802, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2018. "Common information in carry trade risk factors," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 37-47.
    3. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    4. Eriksen, Jonas N., 2019. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and currency momentum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 91-108.
    5. Fan, Zhenzhen & Londono, Juan M. & Xiao, Xiao, 2022. "Equity tail risk and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 484-503.
    6. Thomas A. Maurer & Thuy-Duong Tô & Ngoc-Khanh Tran, 2019. "Pricing Risks Across Currency Denominations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(11), pages 5308-5336, November.
    7. Byrne, Joseph P & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2017. "The Time-Varying Risk Price of Currency Carry Trades," MPRA Paper 80788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2022. "The time-varying risk price of currency portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    9. Mueller, Philippe & Stathopoulos, Andreas & Vedolin, Andrea, 2017. "International correlation risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 270-299.
    10. Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Diversification role of currency momentum for carry trade: Evidence from financial crises," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-19.
    11. Dupuy, Philippe & James, Jessica & Marsh, Ian W., 2021. "Attractive and non-attractive currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    12. Choi, Jin Ho & Suh, Sangwon, 2022. "Conditionally-hedged currency carry trades," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Choi, Jin Ho & Suh, Sangwon, 2021. "A filtered currency carry trade," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Mikhail Chernov & Magnus Dahlquist & Lars Lochstoer, 2023. "Pricing Currency Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 693-730, April.
    16. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2019. "Carry trades and commodity risk factors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 121-129.
    17. Byrne, Joseph P. & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2021. "The conditional volatility premium on currency portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Measures of global uncertainty and carry-trade excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 212-227.
    19. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Global macro risks in currency excess returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 300-315.
    20. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2022. "Testing Factor Models in the Cross-Section," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carry trade; Currency excess returns; Investment-based model; Q-theory; Production-based model; Factors; Two-pass regressions; Prices of risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:133:y:2023:i:c:s0261560623000311. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.