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Estimating the effectiveness of forest protection using regression discontinuity

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  • Neal, Timothy

Abstract

This article uses satellite data to estimate the effectiveness of government protection on forested land across the globe over 2000–2022. Since deforestation can have significant negative externalities, measuring the effectiveness of protected areas is important for the future of conservation. It uses a regression discontinuity design at the boundaries of protected forest to counter the fact that protection is not randomly assigned. It estimates that protected areas are 30% effective on average, with significant heterogeneity between countries. Many countries with significant forest have extremely ineffective protection, such as Indonesia, the DRC, and Bolivia, suggesting that improvements to the quality of protection are just as important as the quantity of protected areas to conserve biodiversity.

Suggested Citation

  • Neal, Timothy, 2024. "Estimating the effectiveness of forest protection using regression discontinuity," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:127:y:2024:i:c:s0095069624000950
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2024.103021
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deforestation; Protected areas; Environmental regulation; Biodiversity; Land use; Conservation; Climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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