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Preference Reversals Under Ambiguity

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  • Hela Maafi

    (Paris School of Economics, Université Paris 1-Panthéon-Sorbonne, 75013 Paris, France; and GREGHEC-HEC School of Management, F-78350 Jouy-en-Josas, Paris, France)

Abstract

Preference reversals have been widely studied using risky or riskless gambles. However, little is known about preference reversals under ambiguity (unknown probabilities). Subjects were asked to make a binary choice between ambiguous P-bets (big likelihood of giving small prize) and ambiguous $-bets (small likelihood of giving large prize) and their willingness to accept was elicited. Subjects then performed the same two tasks with risky bets, where the probability of winning for a given risky bet is the center of the probability interval of the corresponding ambiguous bet. Preference reversals are not only replicated under ambiguity but are even stronger than are those under risk. This is due to higher elicited prices for the $-bet and lower elicited prices for the P-bet under ambiguity than under risk. This result can be explained by the shape of the weighting function for different levels of uncertainty and for different elicitation modes. This paper was accepted by Peter Wakker, decision analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Hela Maafi, 2011. "Preference Reversals Under Ambiguity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(11), pages 2054-2066, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:11:p:2054-2066
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1396
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    2. Filiz-Ozbay, Emel & Gulen, Huseyin & Masatlioglu, Yusufcan & Ozbay, Erkut Y., 2022. "Comparing ambiguous urns with different sizes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    3. Prokosheva, Sasha, 2016. "Comparing decisions under compound risk and ambiguity: The importance of cognitive skills," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 94-105.
    4. Castillo, Geoffrey, 2021. "Preference reversals with social distances," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Ranoua Bouchouicha & Peter Martinsson & Haileselassie Medhin & Ferdinand M. Vieider, 2017. "Stake effects on ambiguity attitudes for gains and losses," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 83(1), pages 19-35, June.
    6. Julius Pahlke & Sebastian Strasser & Ferdinand Vieider, 2015. "Responsibility effects in decision making under risk," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 125-146, October.
    7. Roxane Bricet, 2018. "Preferences for information precision under ambiguity," THEMA Working Papers 2018-09, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    8. Zhihua Li & Julia Müller & Peter P. Wakker & Tong V. Wang, 2018. "The Rich Domain of Ambiguity Explored," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(7), pages 3227-3240, July.
    9. Armando Holzknecht & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Tibor Neugebauer, 2024. "Speculating in zero-value assets: The greater fool game experiment," Working Papers 2024-09, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    10. Roxane Bricet, 2018. "The price for instrumentally valuable information," THEMA Working Papers 2018-10, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    11. Attema, Arthur E. & Brouwer, Werner B.F., 2013. "In search of a preferred preference elicitation method: A test of the internal consistency of choice and matching tasks," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 126-140.
    12. Stefan T. Trautmann & Ferdinand M. Vieider & Peter P. Wakker, 2011. "Preference Reversals for Ambiguity Aversion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1320-1333, July.
    13. Amit Kothiyal & Vitalie Spinu & Peter Wakker, 2014. "An experimental test of prospect theory for predicting choice under ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-17, February.
    14. Aurélien Baillon & Philipp Koellinger & Theresa Treffers, 2014. "Sadder but wiser: The Effects of Affective States and Weather on Ambiguity Attitudes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-044/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Ball, Linden J. & Bardsley, Nicholas & Ormerod, Tom, 2012. "Do preference reversals generalise? Results on ambiguity and loss aversion," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 48-57.
    16. Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva & Olivier Renault, 2024. "Dynamic decision-making when ambiguity attitudes depend on exogenous events," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 96(2), pages 269-295, March.
    17. Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael & Stefan, Matthias, 2014. "Experimental evidence on varying uncertainty and skewness in laboratory double-auction markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 798-809.
    18. Ge Bai & Ranjani Krishnan, 2016. "Effects of Ambiguous Common Uncertainty on Employee Preference for Relative Performance Contracts," The Japanese Accounting Review, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, vol. 6, pages 65-93, December.
    19. Alexander Peysakhovich & Uma R. Karmarkar, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Favorable and Unfavorable Information on Decision Making Under Ambiguity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(8), pages 2163-2178, August.
    20. Carlos Alós-Ferrer & Johannes Buckenmaier & Michele Garagnani, 2020. "Stochastic choice and preference reversals," ECON - Working Papers 370, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Jul 2021.
    21. Stephen G. Dimmock & Roy Kouwenberg & Peter P. Wakker, 2016. "Ambiguity Attitudes in a Large Representative Sample," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1363-1380, May.

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