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Voss wins the Presidency! A commentary essay on "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method"

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  • Voss, Kevin E.

Abstract

This comment uses the Democratic Party's nomination race from the 1924 U.S. Presidential election to develop a better understanding of Armstrong and Graefe's (2010) Biographical Index. Well-established causal indicators are necessary before actions are taken to nominate, select, or improve the standing of candidates running for election. Forecasting devices such as a Biographical Index cannot eliminate from consideration unworthy candidates. Nonetheless, the Armstrong and Graefe scale appears to have the smallest error of competing forecasting devices.

Suggested Citation

  • Voss, Kevin E., 2011. "Voss wins the Presidency! A commentary essay on "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method"," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 345-347, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:64:y:2011:i:4:p:345-347
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2006. "Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 583-598.
    2. Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2009. "Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates," MPRA Paper 16461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    1. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Conditions under which index models are useful: Reply to bio-index commentaries," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 693-695, July.

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