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Conditions under which index models are useful: Reply to bio-index commentaries

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  • Graefe, Andreas
  • Armstrong, J. Scott

Abstract

This paper summarizes the key conditions under which the index method is valuable for forecasting and describes the procedures one should use when developing index models. The paper also addresses the specific concern of selecting inferior candidates when using the bio-index as a nomination helper. Political decision-makers should not use the bio-index as a stand-alone method but should combine forecasts from a variety of different methods that draw upon different information.

Suggested Citation

  • Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2011. "Conditions under which index models are useful: Reply to bio-index commentaries," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 693-695, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:64:y:2011:i:7:p:693-695
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2008. "Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies," MPRA Paper 9829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Voss, Kevin E., 2011. "Voss wins the Presidency! A commentary essay on "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method"," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 345-347, April.
    3. Cote, Joseph A., 2011. "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A commentary essay," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 696-698, July.
    4. Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2009. "Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates," MPRA Paper 16461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Improving forecasts using equally weighted predictors," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1792-1799.
    2. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott & Jones, Randall J. & Cuzán, Alfred G., 2014. "Combining forecasts: An application to elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 43-54.
    3. Loock, Moritz & Hinnen, Gieri, 2015. "Heuristics in organizations: A review and a research agenda," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(9), pages 2027-2036.

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    2. Voss, Kevin E., 2011. "Voss wins the Presidency! A commentary essay on "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A test of the index method"," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 345-347, April.
    3. Cote, Joseph A., 2011. "Predicting elections from biographical information about candidates: A commentary essay," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(7), pages 696-698, July.
    4. Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Improving forecasts using equally weighted predictors," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1792-1799.
    5. Graefe, Andreas & Armstrong, J. Scott & Jones, Randall J. & Cuzán, Alfred G., 2014. "Combining forecasts: An application to elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 43-54.
    6. Armstrong, J. Scott & Graefe, Andreas, 2009. "Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates," MPRA Paper 16461, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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