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Short-Term Interest Rates and Stock Market Anomalies

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  • Maio, Paulo
  • Santa-Clara, Pedro

Abstract

We present a simple 2-factor model that helps explain several capital asset pricing model (CAPM) anomalies (value premium, return reversal, equity duration, asset growth, and inventory growth). The model is consistent with Merton’s intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) framework, and the key risk factor is the innovation on a short-term interest rate, the federal funds rate, or the T-bill rate. This model explains a large fraction of the dispersion in the average returns of the joint market anomalies. Moreover, the model compares favorably with alternative multifactor models widely used in the literature. Hence, short-term interest rates seem to be relevant for explaining several dimensions of cross-sectional equity risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2017. "Short-Term Interest Rates and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 927-961, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:52:y:2017:i:03:p:927-961_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chiah, Mardy & Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2023. "Trade competitiveness and the aggregate returns in global stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Iqbal, Najaf & Umar, Zaghum & Ruman, Asif M. & Jiang, Shaohua, 2024. "The term structure of yield curve and connectedness among ESG investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    3. Asgharian, Hossein & Christiansen, Charlotte & Hou, Ai Jun & Wang, Weining, 2021. "Long- and short-run components of factor betas: Implications for stock pricing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Gao, Yang & Leung, Henry & Satchell, Stephen, 2022. "Partial moment momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Avraham Kamara & Lance Young, 2018. "Yes, the Composition of the Market Portfolio Matters: The Estimated Cost of Equity," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 911-929, December.
    6. Kim, Myeong Hyeon & Kim, Young Min & Yang, Kisung, 2022. "Understanding BOXPI — Industry portfolio perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Ilan Cooper & Paulo Maio, 2019. "Asset Growth, Profitability, and Investment Opportunities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(9), pages 3988-4010, September.
    8. Zhang, Han, 2021. "An inflation-based ICAPM in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Rocciolo, Francesco & Gheno, Andrea & Brooks, Chris, 2022. "Explaining abnormal returns in stock markets: An alpha-neutral version of the CAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Kwon, Ji Ho, 2022. "More predictors of the investment opportunity set in the ICAPM," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    11. Zaremba, Adam & Maydybura, Alina, 2019. "The cross-section of returns in frontier equity markets: Integrated or segmented pricing?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 219-238.
    12. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2018. "Economic activity and momentum profits: Further evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 466-482.

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