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A neoclassical interpretation of momentum

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  • Liu, Laura Xiaolei
  • Zhang, Lu

Abstract

The neoclassical theory of investment implies that expected stock returns are tied with the expected marginal benefit of investment divided by the marginal cost of investment. Winners have higher expected growth and expected marginal productivity (two major components of the marginal benefit of investment), and earn higher expected stock returns than losers. The investment model succeeds in capturing average momentum profits, reversal of momentum in long horizons, long-run risks in momentum, and the interaction of momentum with several firm characteristics. However, the model fails to reproduce the procyclicality of momentum as well as its negative interaction with book-to-market equity.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Laura Xiaolei & Zhang, Lu, 2014. "A neoclassical interpretation of momentum," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 109-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:67:y:2014:i:c:p:109-128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.07.003
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    12. Mortal, Sandra C. & Schill, Michael J., 2018. "The role of firm investment in momentum and reversal," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 255-278.
    13. Dittmar, Robert F. & Lundblad, Christian T., 2017. "Firm characteristics, consumption risk, and firm-level risk exposures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 326-343.
    14. Neal Galpin, 2020. "Cash holdings, costly financing and the q theory of returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1149-1174, April.
    15. Lu Zhang, 2019. "Q-factors and Investment CAPM," NBER Working Papers 26538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    20. George, Thomas J. & Hwang, Chuan-Yang & Li, Yuan, 2018. "The 52-week high, q-theory, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 148-163.
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    25. Ang, Tze Chuan ‘Chewie’ & Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Wei, K.C. John, 2020. "Mispricing firm-level productivity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 139-163.

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