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Yen Carry Trade and the Subprime Crisis

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  • Masazumi Hattori
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

Yen carry trades have traditionally been viewed in narrow terms purely as a foreign exchange transaction. This paper argues that the carry trade should instead be viewed in the broader context of global credit conditions. We show that the volume of yen funding that is channeled for use outside Japan is mirrored by fluctuations in the size of U.S. broker-dealer balance sheets. Differences in short-term interest rates across currencies help to explain the incidence of the carry trade, as does the measure of implied equity risk given by the VIX index. The conjunction of deteriorating credit conditions in the United States and the weakness of the dollar against the yen in the early stages of the credit crisis of 2007–08 can thus be seen as two sides of the same coin. Both can be seen as consequences of financial sector deleveraging in the United States. IMF Staff Papers (2009) 56, 384–409. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2009.2; published online 24 March 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Masazumi Hattori & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Yen Carry Trade and the Subprime Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 384-409, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:56:y:2009:i:2:p:384-409
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniela Gabor, 2012. "Managing Capital Accounts in Emerging Markets: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 714-731, June.
    2. Hutchison, Michael & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2013. "Impact of macro-economic surprises on carry trade activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1133-1147.
    3. Sumila Tharanga Wanaguru, 2011. "Carry Trades and Financial Crisis: An Analytical Perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2011-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Sefora Motena Rangoanana, 2022. "Carry Trade and Capital Market Returns in South Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-13, October.
    5. Agnieszka P. Markiewicz & Ralph C. Verhoeks & Willem F. C. Verschoor & Remco C. J. Zwinkels, 2023. "Inattentive Search for Currency Fundamentals," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(4), pages 907-952, December.
    6. Ronald MacDonald & Jun Nagayasu, 2013. "Currency forecast errors at times of low interest rates: evidence from survey data on the Yen/Dollar exchange rate," Working Papers 1321, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    7. Carmela D'Avino, 2015. "Net Interoffice Accounts of Global Banks: The Role of Domestic Funding," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-17, June.
    8. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bruno Freitas Boynard de Vasconcelos & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2014. "Banking Systemic Risk, Foreign Funding, Exchange Rate Exposure and Carry Trade: is there a relation?," Working Papers Series 365, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Hossfeld, Oliver & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Carry funding and safe haven currencies: A threshold regression approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 185-202.
    11. Fong, Wai Mun, 2010. "A stochastic dominance analysis of yen carry trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1237-1246, June.
    12. Kim, Sungjae Francis, 2023. "Currency carry trades, risk management, and firm value: Evidence from Korean banking industry," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Chiara Banti, 2016. "Illiquidity In The Stock And Foreign Exchange Markets: An Investigation Of Their Cross-Market Dynamics," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 411-436, December.
    14. Laborda, Juan & Laborda, Ricardo & Olmo, Jose, 2014. "Optimal currency carry trade strategies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 52-66.
    15. Liu, Ming-Hua & Margaritis, Dimitris & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2012. "Risk appetite, carry trade and exchange rates," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 48-63.
    16. Zhang, Ziyun & Chen, Su & Li, Bo, 2022. "Does previous carry trade position affect following investors' decision-making and carry returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Jan Priewe, 2010. "What Went Wrong? Alternative interpretations of the global financial crisis," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1002, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    18. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "Currency forecast errors and carry trades at times of low interest rates: Evidence from survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-19.
    19. Orlov, Vitaly, 2016. "Currency momentum, carry trade, and market illiquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-11.

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