IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v140y2022ics0378426621000170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Target 2 determinants: The role of Balance of Payments imbalances in the long run

Author

Listed:
  • Minenna, Marcello

Abstract

Target2 (T2) balances in the Eurozone are again in a divergent trend after the pandemic shock. The recent financial literature seems to have reached a consensus about the need to characterize such phenomena under specific monetary policy configurations variable in time. T2 balances can be decomposed by using the balance of payments (BoP) identities. Indeed, proving a strong causality link from data that have to fulfill an accounting identity can be challenging, since the closer the data are to an accounting identity, the less information on causal relation can be inferred from econometric techniques. Nevertheless we believe that useful information can be extracted from accounting correspondences. In this perspective, both long-term and short-term BoP decompositions are performed for Italy, Germany and France under different regimes of monetary policies in the Euro Area, showing the uttermost importance of current account imbalances and interbank credit flows in determining the behavior of T2 net balances.

Suggested Citation

  • Minenna, Marcello, 2022. "Target 2 determinants: The role of Balance of Payments imbalances in the long run," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:140:y:2022:i:c:s0378426621000170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106059
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426621000170
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106059?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    2. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2012. "Determinants of TARGET2 imbalances," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 136, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:77:p:139-197 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Raphael A. Auer, 2014. "What drives TARGET2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis [What drives Target2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 139-197.
    5. Stephen Cecchetti & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Interpreting TARGET2 balances," BIS Working Papers 393, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Martin Handig & Robert Holzfeind & Clemens Jobst, 2012. "Understanding TARGET 2: The Eurosystem’s Euro Payment System from an Economic and Balance Sheet Perspective," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 81-91.
    7. Harmen Lehment, 2019. "Fiscal implications of the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(HS), pages 89-111.
    8. Ulrich Bindseil & Philippine Cour-Thimann & Philipp König, 2012. "Target2 and Cross-border Interbank Payments during the Financial Crisis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(05), pages 83-92, February.
    9. Baldo, Luca & Hallinger, Benoît & Helmus, Caspar & Herrala, Niko & Martins, Débora & Mohing, Felix & Petroulakis, Filippos & Resinek, Marc & Vergote, Olivier & Usciati, Benoît & Wang, Yizhou, 2017. "The distribution of excess liquidity in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 200, European Central Bank.
    10. Marcello Minenna & Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2019. "The rise of national central banks' TARGET balances: a response to Andrea Terzi," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 169-175, September.
    11. Marcello Minenna & Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2018. "ECB monetary expansions and euro area TARGET2 imbalances: a balance-of-payment-based decomposition," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 147-159, September.
    12. Pana Alves & Antonio Millaruelo & Ana del Río, 2018. "The increase in TARGET balances in the euro area since 2015," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue DEC.
    13. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2015. "Capital flows and the current account: Taking financing (more) seriously," BIS Working Papers 525, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Meijers, Huub & Muysken, Joan, 2016. "The impact of quantitative easing in the Netherlands: A stock-flow consistent approach," MERIT Working Papers 2016-067, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target Balances and the German Financial Account in Light of the European Balance-of-Payments Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4051, CESifo.
    16. Andrea Terzi, 2019. "The rise of national central banks' TARGET balances in the euro area: a comment," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 161-168, September.
    17. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Kedan, Danielle & Schmitz, Martin & Adalid, Ramón & Papsdorf, Patrick, 2017. "The Eurosystem’s asset purchase programme and TARGET balances," Occasional Paper Series 196, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. PhilippineCour-Thimann, 2013. "CESifo Forum Special Issue April 2013: Target Balances and the Crisis in the Euro Area," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 0, pages 05-50, May.
    2. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2020. "Capital flows in the euro area and TARGET2 balances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Stephen Wright & Charmaine Portelli, 2018. "The True Size of the ECB: New Insights from National Central Bank Balance Sheets," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1807, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2020. "Capital flight to Germany: Two alternative measures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Joana Sousa Leite & Rita Soares & João Filipe & Nuno Nóbrega, 2020. "Banco de Portugal TARGET balance: evolution and main drivers," Working Papers o202001, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Eisenschmidt, Jens & Kedan, Danielle & Schmitz, Martin, 2024. "Euro area monetary policy and TARGET balances: A trilogy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Fagan, Gabriel & McNelis, Paul D., 2020. "Sudden stops in the Euro Area: Does monetary union matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Moro, Beniamino, 2019. "Interpreting TARGET balances in the European Monetary Union: A critical review of the literature," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    9. Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud & Chitu, Livia & Richardson, Gary, 2015. "Mutual Assistance between Federal Reserve Banks: 1913–1960 as Prolegomena to the TARGET2 Debate," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 621-659, September.
    10. Chmielewski Tomasz & Sławiński Andrzej, 2019. "Lessons from TARGET2 imbalances: The case for the ECB being a lender of last resort," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 48-63, June.
    11. Philippine Cour-Thimann, 2013. "CESifo Forum Special Issue April 2013: Target Balances and the Crisis in the Euro Area," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 0(1), pages 05-50, May.
    12. Juan Barredo-Zuriarrain & Ricardo Molero-Simarro & Alejandro Quesada-Solana, 2017. "Euro-Dependence—A Peripheral Look beyond the Monetary Union: A Proposal of Reform of the TARGET2," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 375-393, September.
    13. Astarita, Caterina & Purificato, Francesco, 2013. "TARGET2 imbalances and the need for a lender of last resort," MPRA Paper 51124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Sergio Rossi, 2019. "Rethinking the euro as a common currency for Europe: Keynes's plan revisited," Revista de Economía Crítica, Asociación de Economía Crítica, vol. 27, pages 86-99.
    15. Stephen Cecchetti & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Interpreting TARGET2 balances," BIS Working Papers 393, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    17. Alexander Erler & Stefan Hohberger, 2016. "Editor's Choice TARGET2: How Costly is Buying Time?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(3), pages 491-505.
    18. Francesco Purificato & Caterina Astarita, 2015. "TARGET2 Imbalances and the ECB as Lender of Last Resort," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, October.
    19. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    20. Carlo Panico, Francesco Purificato, Elvira Sapienza, 2015. "Benefici, problemi e prospettive dell’integrazione monetaria in Europa (Benefits, issues and future of monetary integration in Europe)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 68(271), pages 305-339.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Payment system; Financial crisis; Quantitative easing; Interbank lending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:140:y:2022:i:c:s0378426621000170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.