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Determinants of TARGET2 imbalances

Author

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  • Martina Cecioni

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Giuseppe Ferrero

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

The paper analyzes developments in TARGET2 imbalances within the euro area since 2007, from two perspectives: national central banks� balance sheets and countries� balance of payments (BoP). We examine the relationship between TARGET2 balances and the Eurosystem liquidity provision, analyzing how the circulation of the latter has changed during the crisis. We then study BoP developments in Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain, investigating which of the following explanations accounts for the growing TARGET2 imbalances: (i) current account deficit, (ii) decrease of net inflows of private capital from securities and interbank markets and (iii) run on deposits. The results of our analysis suggest that while the increase in TARGET2 liabilities is related to the current account deficit in Greece, there is no evidence of this in Italy, Spain and Portugal. In all countries the increase is mostly driven by private capital outflows in securities and interbank markets; deposit runs are apparent only in Greece. In Italy, the reduction of capital inflows consisted entirely in a decrease in the interbank market cross-border activity and in portfolio investments by non-residents.

Suggested Citation

  • Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2012. "Determinants of TARGET2 imbalances," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 136, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_136_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Juan Barredo-Zuriarrain & Ricardo Molero-Simarro & Alejandro Quesada-Solana, 2017. "Euro-Dependence—A Peripheral Look beyond the Monetary Union: A Proposal of Reform of the TARGET2," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 375-393, September.
    4. Sergio Rossi, 2019. "Rethinking the euro as a common currency for Europe: Keynes's plan revisited," Revista de Economia Critica, Asociacion de Economia Critica, vol. 27, pages 86-99.
    5. Georg Dettmann, 2014. "Determinants of Internal and External Imbalances within the Euro Area," Working Papers 01/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2020. "Capital flight to Germany: Two alternative measures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Sergio Cesaratto, 2013. "The implications of TARGET2 in the European balance of payments crisis and beyond," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 359-382.
    8. Bill Lucarelli, 2017. "Intra-eurozone Payments Imbalances: Implications for the TARGET2 Payments System," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 343-357, September.
    9. Massimo Amato & Luca Fantacci & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Gennaro Zezza, 2016. "Going Forward from B to A? Proposals for the Eurozone Crisis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-14, August.
    10. Giacomo Oddo & Enrico Tosti, 2017. "The evolution of Italy�s investment income balance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 386, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Stephen Wright & Charmaine Portelli, 2018. "The True Size of the ECB: New Insights from National Central Bank Balance Sheets," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1807, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    12. Carlo Panico, Francesco Purificato, Elvira Sapienza, 2015. "Benefici, problemi e prospettive dell’integrazione monetaria in Europa (Benefits, issues and future of monetary integration in Europe)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 68(271), pages 305-339.
    13. Angel Ubide, 2013. "Reengineering EMU for an Uncertain World," Policy Briefs PB13-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    14. Dimakopoulou, Vasiliki & Economides, George & Philippopoulos, Apostolis, 2022. "The ECB's policy, the Recovery Fund and the importance of trust and fiscal corrections: The case of Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    15. Carlo Panico & Francesco Purificato, 2013. "The Debt Crisis and the European Central Bank’s Role of Lender of Last Resort," Working Papers wp306, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    16. Francesco Purificato & Caterina Astarita, 2015. "TARGET2 Imbalances and the ECB as Lender of Last Resort," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-28, October.
    17. Sergio Cesaratto, 2012. "The endless eurozone crisis, where do we stand? a classical-kaleckian overview," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2012(107), pages 35-63.
    18. Minenna, Marcello, 2022. "Target 2 determinants: The role of Balance of Payments imbalances in the long run," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    19. Santiago Capraro & Carlo Panico & Ignacio Perrotini & Francesco Purificato, 2012. "Austerit? o politiche coordinate ed espansive? Le difficili scelte delle autorit? europee," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2012(108), pages 81-112.
    20. Baldo, Luca & Hallinger, Benoît & Helmus, Caspar & Herrala, Niko & Martins, Débora & Mohing, Felix & Petroulakis, Filippos & Resinek, Marc & Vergote, Olivier & Usciati, Benoît & Wang, Yizhou, 2017. "The distribution of excess liquidity in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 200, European Central Bank.
    21. Astarita, Caterina & Purificato, Francesco, 2013. "TARGET2 imbalances and the need for a lender of last resort," MPRA Paper 51124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Alexander Erler & Stefan Hohberger, 2016. "Editor's Choice TARGET2: How Costly is Buying Time?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(3), pages 491-505.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    payment system; financial crisis; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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