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ECB monetary expansions and euro area TARGET2 imbalances: a balance-of-payment-based decomposition

Author

Listed:
  • Marcello Minenna

    (Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB), Rome, Italy)

  • Giovanni Dosi

    (Scuola Superiore ‘Sant’Anna,’ Pisa, Italy)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (Scuola Superiore ‘Sant’Anna,’ Pisa, Italy and OFCE–Sciences Po, Sophia-Antipolis, France)

Abstract

The recent financial literature seems to have reached a consensus about the influence of European Central Bank (ECB) unconventional monetary policies in explaining the multiple divergent trends of TARGET2 (T2) balances in the eurozone from 2010 and the ensuing segregation of risks in each national economy. According to the ECB, ‘mechanical’ effects in the accounting of government bonds explain the explosion of T2 balances. Divergence could therefore not be attributable to a ‘capital flight’ from peripheral economies towards northern Europe. Such an explanation does not seem to fit well with the analysed cases of Italy, Spain, and Germany. A decomposition of the T2 balances through the analysis of the financial accounts of the balance of payments shows indeed that the deterioration in the balances of Italy and Spain is mainly due to a shift of private-sector financial wealth from government securities to foreign assets (bonds, shares, and mutual funds). In the case of Germany, the abnormal growth of T2 balances is mainly attributed to the persistent influence of current-account surpluses reaching 6–8 percent of GDP and increasing due to the indirect effects of quantitative easing policies on the exchange rate between the euro and the other major international currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Minenna & Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini, 2018. "ECB monetary expansions and euro area TARGET2 imbalances: a balance-of-payment-based decomposition," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 147-159, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:ejeepi:v:15:y:2018:i:2:p147-159
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Reale, Jessica, 2024. "Interbank Decisions and Margins of Stability: an Agent-Based Stock-Flow Consistent Approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. Minenna, Marcello, 2022. "Target 2 determinants: The role of Balance of Payments imbalances in the long run," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Orsola Costantini, 2020. "The Eurozone as a Trap and a Hostage: Obstacles and Prospects of the Debate on European Fiscal Rules," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(5), pages 284-291, September.
    4. David Blake, 2023. "Target2: The Silent Bailout System That Keeps the Euro Afloat," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-126, December.
    5. Rosaria Rita Canale & G. Liotti, 2022. "Target2 imbalances and poverty in the eurozone," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1395-1417, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; payment system; financial crisis; quantitative easing; interbank lending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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