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The hidden cost of uncertainty for airspace users

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  • Gurtner, Gérald
  • Cook, Andrew

Abstract

This article highlights the importance of uncertainty in day-to-day operations, and the need to take it into account to properly assess the cost of delay for airspace users. It defines a cost of uncertainty and estimates it using real data. It provides some easily computable models based on the average and standard deviation of delay to estimate the cost of delay in general. The article shows that uncertainty is also important in the formulation of buffers for airlines and provides a simple model to estimate the optimal assignment, further using real data to compute the optimal value at different airports.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurtner, Gérald & Cook, Andrew, 2021. "The hidden cost of uncertainty for airspace users," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:91:y:2021:i:c:s0969699720305810
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.102002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kafle, Nabin & Zou, Bo, 2016. "Modeling flight delay propagation: A new analytical-econometric approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 520-542.
    2. Campanelli, Bruno & Fleurquin, Pablo & Arranz, Andrés & Etxebarria, Izaro & Ciruelos, Carla & Eguíluz, Víctor M. & Ramasco, José J., 2016. "Comparing the modeling of delay propagation in the US and European air traffic networks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(PA), pages 12-18.
    3. Wong, Jinn-Tsai & Tsai, Shy-Chang, 2012. "A survival model for flight delay propagation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 5-11.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gurtner, Gérald & Bolić, Tatjana, 2023. "Impact of cost approximation on the efficiency of collaborative regulation resolution mechanisms," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Chen, Gong & Fricke, Hartmut & Okhrin, Ostap & Rosenow, Judith, 2024. "Flight delay propagation inference in air transport networks using the multilayer perceptron," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

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