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Comparing the modeling of delay propagation in the US and European air traffic networks

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  • Campanelli, Bruno
  • Fleurquin, Pablo
  • Arranz, Andrés
  • Etxebarria, Izaro
  • Ciruelos, Carla
  • Eguíluz, Víctor M.
  • Ramasco, José J.

Abstract

Complex Systems are those in which a very large number of elements interact, usually in a non-linear fashion, producing emergent behaviors that are typically difficult to predict. Air transportation systems fall in this category, with a large number of aircraft following a pre-scheduled program. It has been shown that it is possible to understand and forecast delays propagation in these systems. The objective of this analysis is to compare the modeling in the US and in the European air traffic networks, analyzing the propagation of delays due to failures in the schedule or to disturbances. We use two different agent based models recently developed to simulate the delays propagation and assess the effect of disruptions in the networks (US and ECAC areas). Our results show that a first-come first-served protocol managing the flights produces larger congestion when compared with an ATFM (Air Traffic Flow Management) slots priority system.

Suggested Citation

  • Campanelli, Bruno & Fleurquin, Pablo & Arranz, Andrés & Etxebarria, Izaro & Ciruelos, Carla & Eguíluz, Víctor M. & Ramasco, José J., 2016. "Comparing the modeling of delay propagation in the US and European air traffic networks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(PA), pages 12-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:56:y:2016:i:pa:p:12-18
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.03.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    5. Guo, Zhen & Hao, Mengyan & Yu, Bin & Yao, Baozhen, 2022. "Detecting delay propagation in regional air transport systems using convergent cross mapping and complex network theory," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Chen, Shenwen & Du, Wenbo & Liu, Runran & Cao, Xianbin, 2023. "Finding spatial and temporal features of delay propagation via multi-layer networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 614(C).
    7. Li, Chi & Mao, Jianfeng & Li, Lingyi & Wu, Jingxuan & Zhang, Lianmin & Zhu, Jianyu & Pan, Zibin, 2024. "Flight delay propagation modeling: Data, Methods, and Future opportunities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    8. Ng, K.K.H. & Lee, C.K.M. & Chan, Felix T.S. & Qin, Yichen, 2017. "Robust aircraft sequencing and scheduling problem with arrival/departure delay using the min-max regret approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 115-136.
    9. Gurtner, Gérald & Cook, Andrew, 2021. "The hidden cost of uncertainty for airspace users," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Bombelli, Alessandro & Sallan, Jose Maria, 2023. "Analysis of the effect of extreme weather on the US domestic air network. A delay and cancellation propagation network approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    11. Li, Qiang & Wu, Lu & Guan, Xinjia & Tian, Ze-jin, 2024. "Interplay of network topologies in aviation delay propagation: A complex network and machine learning analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 638(C).
    12. Rodríguez-Sanz, à lvaro & Comendador, Fernando Gómez & Valdés, Rosa Arnaldo & Pérez-Castán, Javier A., 2018. "Characterization and prediction of the airport operational saturation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 147-172.
    13. Du, Wen-Bo & Zhang, Ming-Yuan & Zhang, Yu & Cao, Xian-Bin & Zhang, Jun, 2018. "Delay causality network in air transport systems," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 466-476.
    14. Achenbach, Anna & Spinler, Stefan, 2018. "Prescriptive analytics in airline operations: Arrival time prediction and cost index optimization for short-haul flights," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 265-279.

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