IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v90y2021ics096969972030541x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Connectivity measures and passengers’ behavior: Comparing conventional connectivity models to predict itinerary market shares

Author

Listed:
  • Redondi, Renato
  • Birolini, Sebastian
  • Morlotti, Chiara
  • Paleari, Stefano

Abstract

Connectivity measures have been widely used by researchers and practitioners in the air transport industry to evaluate the degree of transport provision at different levels of detail. This paper adds to the literature by presenting a comprehensive study of the predictive performance of connectivity indices in estimating aggregate itinerary market shares. Our empirical analysis encompasses both nonstop and connecting itineraries that originated or destined in Europe during 2018. The predictive accuracies of the respective measures are assessed against actual market shares and an ad-hoc benchmark derived from a logit-based calibrated index and evaluated in terms of their prediction-error distributions. Our results suggest that the use of connectivity indices can significantly improve the assessment of itinerary market shares relative to conventional size-based measures (up to 16.9% gain in accuracy over itinerary frequency). These improvements, along with their use of standard formulations and lack of a calibration requirement, make connectivity models a valuable tool for practitioners to use in allocating aggregate air travel flows. An examination of different scenarios—short-/medium (SH/MH)-vs. long-haul (LH) and sizeable vs. thin markets—reveals that determination of the best index is not a straightforward task and provides guidance to selecting the best connectivity measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Redondi, Renato & Birolini, Sebastian & Morlotti, Chiara & Paleari, Stefano, 2021. "Connectivity measures and passengers’ behavior: Comparing conventional connectivity models to predict itinerary market shares," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:90:y:2021:i:c:s096969972030541x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101958
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096969972030541X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101958?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coldren, Gregory M. & Koppelman, Frank S., 2005. "Modeling the competition among air-travel itinerary shares: GEV model development," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 345-365, May.
    2. Veldhuis, Jan, 1997. "The competitive position of airline networks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 181-188.
    3. Frédéric Dobruszkes, 2006. "An analysis of European low-cost airlines and their networks," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/95835, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Lurkin, Virginie & Garrow, Laurie A. & Higgins, Matthew J. & Newman, Jeffrey P. & Schyns, Michael, 2017. "Accounting for price endogeneity in airline itinerary choice models: An application to Continental U.S. markets," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 228-246.
    5. Jan K. Brueckner, 2003. "Airline Traffic and Urban Economic Development," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(8), pages 1455-1469, July.
    6. Marco Percoco, 2010. "Airport Activity and Local Development: Evidence from Italy," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(11), pages 2427-2443, October.
    7. Steven Berry & Panle Jia, 2010. "Tracing the Woes: An Empirical Analysis of the Airline Industry," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-43, August.
    8. Tovar, Beatriz & Hernández, Rubén & Rodríguez-Déniz, Héctor, 2015. "Container port competitiveness and connectivity: The Canary Islands main ports case," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 40-51.
    9. Cheung, Tommy K.Y. & Wong, Collin W.H. & Zhang, Anming, 2020. "The evolution of aviation network: Global airport connectivity index 2006–2016," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Danesi, Antonio, 2006. "Measuring airline hub timetable co-ordination and connectivity: definition of a new index and application to a sample of European hubs," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 34, pages 54-74.
    11. Burghouwt, Guillaume & de Wit, Jaap, 2005. "Temporal configurations of European airline networks," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 185-198.
    12. Seelhorst, Michael & Liu, Yi, 2015. "Latent air travel preferences: Understanding the role of frequent flyer programs on itinerary choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 49-61.
    13. Zhu, Zhenran & Zhang, Anming & Zhang, Yahua & Huang, Zhibin & Xu, Shiteng, 2019. "Measuring air connectivity between China and Australia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 359-370.
    14. Kenneth Button & Junyang Yuan, 2013. "Airfreight Transport and Economic Development: An Examination of Causality," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(2), pages 329-340, February.
    15. Teulings, Coen N. & Ossokina, Ioulia V. & de Groot, Henri L.F., 2018. "Land use, worker heterogeneity and welfare benefits of public goods," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 67-82.
    16. Dennis, Nigel, 1994. "Scheduling strategies for airline hub operations," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 131-144.
    17. Coldren, Gregory M. & Koppelman, Frank S. & Kasturirangan, Krishnan & Mukherjee, Amit, 2003. "Modeling aggregate air-travel itinerary shares: logit model development at a major US airline," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 361-369.
    18. Chang, Yu-Hern & Chang, Yu-Wei, 2009. "Air cargo expansion and economic growth: Finding the empirical link," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 264-265.
    19. Hu, Yi & Xiao, Jin & Deng, Ying & Xiao, Yi & Wang, Shouyang, 2015. "Domestic air passenger traffic and economic growth in China: Evidence from heterogeneous panel models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 95-100.
    20. Zhu, Zhenran & Zhang, Anming & Zhang, Yahua, 2018. "Connectivity of intercity passenger transportation in China: A multi-modal and network approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 263-276.
    21. Paleari, Stefano & Redondi, Renato & Malighetti, Paolo, 2010. "A comparative study of airport connectivity in China, Europe and US: Which network provides the best service to passengers?," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 198-210, March.
    22. Guillaume Burghouwt & Renato Redondi, 2013. "Connectivity in Air Transport Networks: An Assessment of Models and Applications," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 47(1), pages 35-53, January.
    23. Lakshmanan, T.R., 2011. "The broader economic consequences of transport infrastructure investments," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-12.
    24. Proussaloglou, Kimon & Koppelman, Frank S., 1999. "The choice of air carrier, flight, and fare class," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 193-201.
    25. Malighetti, Paolo & Paleari, Stefano & Redondi, Renato, 2008. "Connectivity of the European airport network: “Self-help hubbing†and business implications," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 53-65.
    26. Birolini, Sebastian & Cattaneo, Mattia & Malighetti, Paolo & Morlotti, Chiara, 2020. "Integrated origin-based demand modeling for air transportation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    27. Allroggen, Florian & Wittman, Michael D. & Malina, Robert, 2015. "How air transport connects the world – A new metric of air connectivity and its evolution between 1990 and 2012," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 184-201.
    28. (Ato) Xu, Wangtu & Zhou, Jiangping & Yang, Linchuan & Li, Ling, 2018. "The implications of high-speed rail for Chinese cities: Connectivity and accessibility," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 308-326.
    29. Lurkin, Virginie & Garrow, Laurie A. & Higgins, Matthew J. & Newman, Jeffrey P. & Schyns, Michael, 2018. "Modeling competition among airline itineraries," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 157-172.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Keskin, Merve & Zografos, Konstantinos G., 2023. "Optimal network-wide adjustments of initial airport slot allocations with connectivity and fairness objectives," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    2. Avogadro, Nicolò & Cattaneo, Mattia & Paleari, Stefano & Redondi, Renato, 2021. "Replacing short-medium haul intra-European flights with high-speed rail: Impact on CO2 emissions and regional accessibility," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 25-39.
    3. Lee, Enoch & Kawakita, Takuya & Huai, Yue & Lo, Hong K. & Zhang, Anming, 2024. "Airline and high-speed rail collaboration and competition under travel time variability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    4. Hu, Yue & Dai, Liang & Fuellhart, Kurt & Witlox, Frank, 2024. "Examining competition among airline regarding route portfolios at domestic hubs under government regulation: The case of China's aviation market," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lenaerts, Bert & Allroggen, Florian & Malina, Robert, 2021. "The economic impact of aviation: A review on the role of market access," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Allroggen, Florian & Wittman, Michael D. & Malina, Robert, 2015. "How air transport connects the world – A new metric of air connectivity and its evolution between 1990 and 2012," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 184-201.
    3. Boonekamp, Thijs & Burghouwt, Guillaume, 2017. "Measuring connectivity in the air freight industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 81-94.
    4. Morlotti, Chiara & Birolini, Sebastian & Malighetti, Paolo & Redondi, Renato, 2023. "A latent class approach to estimate air travelers’ propensity toward connecting itineraries," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    5. O’Connell, John F. & Bueno, Oriol Escofet, 2018. "A study into the hub performance Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways and their competitive position against the major European hubbing airlines," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 257-268.
    6. Seredyński, Adam & Rothlauf, Franz & Grosche, Tobias, 2014. "An airline connection builder using maximum connection lag with greedy parameter selection," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 120-128.
    7. Zeigler, Patrick & Pagliari, Romano & Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Malighetti, Paolo & Redondi, Renato, 2017. "Low-cost carrier entry at small European airports: Low-cost carrier effects on network connectivity and self-transfer potential," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 68-79.
    8. Zhang, Yahua & Zhang, Anming & Zhu, Zhenran & Wang, Kun, 2017. "Connectivity at Chinese airports: The evolution and drivers," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 490-508.
    9. Cheung, Tommy K.Y. & Wong, Collin W.H. & Zhang, Anming, 2020. "The evolution of aviation network: Global airport connectivity index 2006–2016," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Nenem, Sukru & Graham, Anne & Dennis, Nigel, 2020. "Airline schedule and network competitiveness: A consumer-centric approach for business travel," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Burghouwt, Guillaume, 2011. "The geography of the Spanish airport system: spatial concentration and deconcentration patterns in seat capacity distribution, 2001–2008," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 244-254.
    12. Wang, Kun & Jiang, Changmin & Ng, Adolf K.Y. & Zhu, Zhenran, 2020. "Air and rail connectivity patterns of major city clusters in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 35-53.
    13. Birolini, Sebastian & Antunes, António Pais & Cattaneo, Mattia & Malighetti, Paolo & Paleari, Stefano, 2021. "Integrated flight scheduling and fleet assignment with improved supply-demand interactions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 162-180.
    14. Zhang, Linfeng & Hou, Meng & Liu, Yichen & Wang, Kun & Yang, Hangjun, 2022. "Measuring Beijing's international air connectivity and suggestions for improvement post COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 132-143.
    15. Zhu, Zhenran & Zhang, Anming & Zhang, Yahua, 2018. "Connectivity of intercity passenger transportation in China: A multi-modal and network approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 263-276.
    16. Lu, Mengyuan & Perez, Edgar Jimenez & Mason, Keith & He, Yin, 2024. "Fractal assessment analysis of China's air-HSR network integration," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Chang, Yu-Chun & Lee, Wei-Hao & Hsu, Chia-Jui, 2020. "Identifying competitive position for ten Asian aviation hubs," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 51-66.
    18. Logothetis, Michail & Miyoshi, Chikage, 2018. "Network performance and competitive impact of the single hub – A case study on Turkish Airlines and Emirates," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 215-223.
    19. Rodríguez-Déniz, Héctor & Suau-Sanchez, Pere & Voltes-Dorta, Augusto, 2013. "Classifying airports according to their hub dimensions: an application to the US domestic network," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 188-195.
    20. Wittman, Michael D. & Allroggen, Florian & Malina, Robert, 2016. "Public service obligations for air transport in the United States and Europe: Connectivity effects and value for money," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 112-128.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:90:y:2021:i:c:s096969972030541x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.