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Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport

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  • Dennis, Nigel P.S

Abstract

This paper develops a methodology for assessing the future route network and flight schedule at a medium-sized European airport. The starting point is the existing origin and destination demand from the base airport across the world. This is expanded using growth rates by country or region for the period up to year 2015. The future origin and destination demand is then converted into route traffic, subject to a threshold for direct service. Where demand falls below this level, traffic is reallocated via various appropriate hubs. A model of frequency and aircraft size is applied to estimate the future air service on each route and a schedule created, allocating these flights to specific times of day. The scenario where the base airport operates as a hub is then investigated. This involves identifying a suitable hub model, considering geographical and competitive issues. The origin and destination demand is increased, resulting in an enlarged network of routes. Flights are then scheduled within the constraints of an optimal wave pattern. The outputs are of considerable interest in long-term airport planning and also offer an insight into future airline network strategies and opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis, Nigel P.S, 2002. "Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 313-324.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:8:y:2002:i:5:p:313-324
    DOI: 10.1016/S0969-6997(02)00012-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ashley, David J & Hanson, Paul & Veldhuis, J, 1995. "A policy-sensitive traffic forecasting model for Schiphol Airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 89-97.
    2. Dennis, Nigel, 1994. "Scheduling strategies for airline hub operations," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 131-144.
    3. Graham, Anne, 2000. "Demand for leisure air travel and limits to growth," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 109-118.
    4. Brooke, A.S. & Caves, R.E. & Pitfield, D.E., 1994. "Methodology for predicting European short-haul air transport demand from regional airports," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 37-46.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dewansh Raheja & Y. X. LEE & Z. W. Zhong, 2017. "Utilizing Regression Algorithms for ATS Route Forecasts," Journal of ICT, Design, Engineering and Technological Science, Juhriyansyah Dalle, vol. 1(1), pages 10-12.
    2. Benedikt Badanik & Isabelle Laplace & Nathalie Lenoir & Estelle Malavolti, 2010. "Future strategies for airports," Post-Print hal-01022230, HAL.
    3. Benedikt Badanik & Isabelle Laplace & Nathalie Lenoir & Estelle Malavolti & Anna Tomova & Antonin Kazda, 2010. "Future strategies for airports," Post-Print hal-01023861, HAL.
    4. Mueller, Falko, 2023. "Link and edge weight prediction in air transport networks — An RNN approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 613(C).
    5. Isabelle Laplace & Nathalie Lenoir & Estelle Malavolti & Antonin Kazda & Anna Tomova & Benedikt Badanik, 2008. "FAST : Future Airport Strategies," Post-Print hal-01022266, HAL.
    6. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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