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The potential for European aviation CO2 emissions reduction through the use of larger jet aircraft

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  • Morrell, Peter

Abstract

There is increasing pressure to reduce global CO2 emissions, with aviation targeted as an industry with high future expected growth and limited potential for reduced emissions. In Europe, air transport is likely to be included in the Emissions Trading Scheme from 2012, allowing open trading with other sectors. The proposed scheme may be economically efficient but will it do much towards curbing aviation emissions? A number of papers have looked at the ETS impact on air traffic growth rates, and others have forecast the rate of likely future fuel efficiency gains. This paper examines the potential for greater fuel efficiency through the use of larger aircraft and different patterns of operation. Fuel efficiency was found to be related to aircraft size with more benefit from trading up with short/medium-haul than with long-haul aircraft. This relationship only held for long-haul aircraft if those aircraft with two main decks were removed from the sample (these types showing inherently lower fuel efficiency). Combining these findings with manufacturers' and other forecasts of average aircraft size suggests that less than 1% a year of fuel efficiency gains will be available from this source over the next 20 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Morrell, Peter, 2009. "The potential for European aviation CO2 emissions reduction through the use of larger jet aircraft," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 151-157.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:15:y:2009:i:4:p:151-157
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2008.09.021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. N/A, 2007. "Economic Overview," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 200(1), pages 2-3, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lai, Y.Y. & Christley, E. & Kulanovic, A. & Teng, C.C. & Björklund, A. & Nordensvärd, J. & Karakaya, E. & Urban, F., 2022. "Analysing the opportunities and challenges for mitigating the climate impact of aviation: A narrative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
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    4. Isabelle Laplace & Chantal Roucolle & Aliya Ussinova, 2017. "An analysis of the impact of larger aircraft (A-380) on flight frequency," Post-Print hal-02009250, HAL.
    5. Brueckner, Jan K. & Abreu, Chrystyane, 2020. "Does the fuel-conservation effect of higher fuel prices appear at both the aircraft-model and aggregate airline levels?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. Zou, Bo & Elke, Matthew & Hansen, Mark & Kafle, Nabin, 2014. "Evaluating air carrier fuel efficiency in the US airline industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 306-330.
    7. Brueckner, Jan K. & Abreu, Chrystyane, 2017. "Airline fuel usage and carbon emissions: Determining factors," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 10-17.
    8. Alonso, G. & Benito, A. & Lonza, L. & Kousoulidou, M., 2014. "Investigations on the distribution of air transport traffic and CO2 emissions within the European Union," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 85-93.
    9. Cui, Qiang & Li, Ye & Yu, Chen-lu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Evaluating energy efficiency for airlines: An application of Virtual Frontier Dynamic Slacks Based Measure," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1231-1240.
    10. Chen, Zhongfei & Wanke, Peter & Antunes, Jorge Junio Moreira & Zhang, Ning, 2017. "Chinese airline efficiency under CO2 emissions and flight delays: A stochastic network DEA model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 89-108.
    11. Wang, Jiqiang & Wang, Ya & Zhang, Shaohui & Fan, Chun & Zhou, Nanqing & Liu, Jinhui & Li, Xin & Liu, Yun & Hou, Xiujun & Yi, Bowen, 2024. "Accounting of aviation carbon emission in developing countries based on flight-level ADS-B data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    12. Amizadeh, Fatemeh & Alonso, Gustavo & Benito, Arturo & Morales-Alonso, Gustavo, 2016. "Analysis of the recent evolution of commercial air traffic CO2 emissions and fleet utilization in the six largest national markets of the European Union," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 9-19.
    13. Ye Li & Qiang Cui, 2017. "Airline energy efficiency measures using the Virtual Frontier Network RAM with weak disposability," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 479-504, May.
    14. Cui, Qiang & Li, Ye, 2015. "Evaluating energy efficiency for airlines: An application of VFB-DEA," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 44, pages 34-41.
    15. Isabelle Laplace & Chantal Roucolle & Aliya Ussinova, 2016. "The Analysis of Impact of Larger Aircraft A-380 on Frequency of Flights," Post-Print hal-01424922, HAL.
    16. Mayer, Robert & Ryley, Tim & Gillingwater, David, 2015. "Eco-positioning of airlines: Perception versus actual performance," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 44, pages 82-89.
    17. Singh, Jagroop & Sharma, Somesh Kumar & Srivastava, Rajnish, 2019. "What drives Indian Airlines operational expense: An econometric model," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 32-38.
    18. Vedant Singh, 2016. "Perceptions of emission reduction potential in air transport: a structural equation modeling approach," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 377-403, December.
    19. Zhang, Junfeng & Fang, Hong & Wang, Hongxia & Jia, Mingshun & Wu, Junjie & Fang, Siran, 2017. "Energy efficiency of airlines and its influencing factors: A comparison between China and the United States," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 1-8.
    20. Lu, Cherie, 2011. "The economic benefits and environmental costs of airport operations: Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 360-363.
    21. Presto, Felix & Gollnick, Volker & Lau, Alexander & Lütjens, Klaus, 2022. "Flight frequency regulation and its temporal implications," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 106-118.
    22. Samunderu, E. & Perret, J.K. & Geller, G., 2023. "The economic value rationale of fuel hedging: An empirical perspective from the global airline industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    23. Aliya Ussinova & Isabelle Laplace & Chantal Latgé-Roucolle, 2017. "An Analysis of the Impact of Larger Aircraft (A-380) on Flight Frequency," Post-Print hal-01599423, HAL.
    24. Yu, Jinglei & Shao, Chaofeng & Xue, Chenyang & Hu, Huaqing, 2020. "China's aircraft-related CO2 emissions: Decomposition analysis, decoupling status, and future trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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