IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cba/wpaper/wp117.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Projecting the Need for Formal and Informal Aged Care in Australia: A Dynamic Microsimulation Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Binod Nepal

    (NATSEM, University of Canberra)

  • Laurie Brown

    (NATSEM, University of Canberra)

  • Simon Kelly

    (NATSEM, University of Canberra)

  • Richard Percival

    (NATSEM, University of Canberra)

  • Phil Anderson

    (Australian Institute for Health and Welfare)

  • Ruth Hancock

    (Health Economics Group, University of East Anglia)

  • Geetha Ranmuthugala

    (Australian Institute of Health Innovation, University of New South Wales)

Abstract

With the rapid ageing of the Australian population and the growth in the number of older persons and years likely to be lived with disability, the need for and provision of aged care have become one of the central themes of the public policy debate. This paper discusses the construction of a dedicated Aged Care Module built within the large dynamic microsimulation model APPSIM (Australian Population and Policy Simulator). APPSIM is based on the one per cent sample of the 2001 Australian population census and allows simulation of various life cycle events at individual and household levels through to 2051. The Aged Care Module was designed to specifically simulate low and high care needs and the use and costs of informal and formal home and community and residential age care services, building on information on a range of variables including age, gender, disability level, living arrangements and socio-economic status. The methods for imputing baseline data and transition equations for projecting future care needs will be outlined. The number of older Australians likely to need the different types of aged care will be compared with the projected supply of corresponding care places to estimate unmet need for aged care services at the national level over the next 40 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Binod Nepal & Laurie Brown & Simon Kelly & Richard Percival & Phil Anderson & Ruth Hancock & Geetha Ranmuthugala, 2011. "Projecting the Need for Formal and Informal Aged Care in Australia: A Dynamic Microsimulation Approach," NATSEM Working Paper Series 11/07, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    • Handle: RePEc:cba:wpaper:wp117
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.natsem.canberra.edu.au/files/download?id=700
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Productivity Commission, 2008. "Trends in Aged Care Services: some implications," Research Papers 0803, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    2. Peter Zweifel & Stefan Felder & Andreas Werblow, 2004. "Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: New Evidence on the “Red Herring”," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 29(4), pages 652-666, October.
    3. Andreas Werblow & Stefan Felder & Peter Zweifel, 2007. "Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of ‘red herrings’?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(10), pages 1109-1126, October.
    4. Martin Spielauer, 2007. "Dynamic microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviours: survey and review," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(1), pages 35-53.
    5. Hancock, Ruth & Comas-Herrera, Adelina & King, Derek & Pickard, Linda & Malley, Juliette & Juarez-Garcia, Ariadna & Wittenberg, Raphael, 2006. "Winners and losers: assessing the distributional effects of long-term care funding regimes," ISER Working Paper Series 2006-43, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Anil Gupta & Ann Harding, 2007. "Introduction and Overview," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Modelling Our Future: Population Ageing, Health and Aged Care, pages 1-40, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    7. Office of Health Economics, 2007. "The Economics of Health Care," For School 001490, Office of Health Economics.
    8. N/A, 2007. "Economic Overview," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 200(1), pages 2-3, April.
    9. Agnes Walker, 2007. "Health Status, Health Inequalities and the Ability of Older Australians to Stay in the Labour Force," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Modelling Our Future: Population Ageing, Health and Aged Care, pages 105-129, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Cynthia & Lim, Jue Tao & Chia, Ngee Choon & Wang, Lijia & Tysinger, Bryan & Zissimopoulos, Julie & Chong, Ming Zhe & Wang, Zhe & Koh, Gerald Choon Huat & Yuan, Jian-Min & Tan, Kelvin Bryan & Chi, 2019. "The long-term impact of functional disability on hospitalization spending in Singapore," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    2. Rupendra N Shrestha & Deborah Schofield & Melanie J B Zeppel & Michelle M Cunich & Robert Tanton & Simon J Kelly & Lennert Veerman & Megan E Passey, 2018. "Care&WorkMOD: An Australian Microsimulation Model Projecting the Economic Impacts of Early Retirement in Informal Carers," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(3), pages 78-99.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Colombier, Carsten & Weber, Werner, 2009. "Projecting health-care expenditure for Switzerland: further evidence against the 'red-herring' hypothesis," MPRA Paper 26747, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2009.
    2. Felder, Stefan & Werblow, Andreas, 2008. "Do the age profiles of health care expenditure really steepen over time? New evidence from Swiss cantons," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 05/08, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    3. Ried Walter, 2007. "Medizinisch-technischer Fortschritt und altersspezifische Gesundheitsausgaben / Medical Progress and Age-specific Expenditure on Health Care," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(5-6), pages 636-659, October.
    4. Colombier, Carsten, 2012. "Drivers of health care expenditure: Does Baumol's cost disease loom large?," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 12-5, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    5. Howdon, Daniel & Rice, Nigel, 2018. "Health care expenditures, age, proximity to death and morbidity: Implications for an ageing population," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 60-74.
    6. France Weaver & Sally C. Stearns & Edward C. Norton & William Spector, 2009. "Proximity to death and participation in the long‐term care market," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(8), pages 867-883, August.
    7. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz, 2021. "The “red herring” after 20 years: ageing and health care expenditures," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(5), pages 661-667, July.
    8. Ried, Walter, 2007. "On the relationship between aging, edical progress and age-specific health care expenditures," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 08/2007, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
    9. Breyer Friedrich, 2015. "Demographischer Wandel und Gesundheitsausgaben: Theorie, Empirie und Politikimplikationen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 16(3), pages 215-230, October.
    10. Laurie Brown & Binod Nepal & Heather Booth & Sophie Pennec & Kaarin Anstey & Ann Harding, 2011. "Dynamic Modelling of Ageing and Health: The Dynopta Microsimulation Model," NATSEM Working Paper Series 11/14, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.
    11. Lesley Cockcroft;Emma Hawe, 2012. "Causes of Death: A Study of a Century of Change in England and Wales," Briefing 000143, Office of Health Economics.
    12. Karlsson, Martin & Klohn, Florian, 2011. "Some notes on how to catch a red herring: Ageing, time-to-death & care costs for older people in Sweden," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 207, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    13. Wubulihasimu, Parida & Gheorghe, Maria & Slobbe, Lany & Polder, Johan & van Baal, Pieter, 2015. "Trends in Dutch hospital spending by age and disease 1994–2010," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 316-323.
    14. Silvia Balia & Rinaldo Brau, 2014. "A Country For Old Men? Long‐Term Home Care Utilization In Europe," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(10), pages 1185-1212, October.
    15. Maria Ana Matias & Rita Santos & Panos Kasteridis & Katja Grasic & Anne Mason & Nigel Rice, 2022. "Approaches to projecting future healthcare demand," Working Papers 186cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    16. Trottmann, Maria & Zweifel, Peter & Beck, Konstantin, 2012. "Supply-side and demand-side cost sharing in deregulated social health insurance: Which is more effective?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 231-242.
    17. Fabio Pammolli & Francesco Porcelli & Francesco Vidoli & Monica Auteri & Guido Borà, 2017. "La spesa sanitaria delle Regioni in Italia - Saniregio2017," Working Papers CERM 01-2017, Competitività, Regole, Mercati (CERM).
    18. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz & Thomas Niebel, 2015. "Health care expenditures and longevity: is there a Eubie Blake effect?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(1), pages 95-112, January.
    19. GENEVOIS Anne-Sophie & LIEGEOIS Philippe & PI ALPERIN Maria Noel, 2019. "DyMH_LU: a simple tool for modelling and simulating the health status of the Luxembourgish elderly in the longer run," LISER Working Paper Series 2019-06, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    20. Vincenzo Atella & Valentina Conti, 2013. "The effect of age and time to death on health care expenditures: the Italian experience," CEIS Research Paper 267, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 12 Nov 2013.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cba:wpaper:wp117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Trueman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/natseau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.