IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/irlaec/v75y2023ics0144818823000194.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the effect of U.S. concealed carry laws on homicide: A replication and sensitivity analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Bondy, Matthew V.
  • Cai, Samuel V.
  • Donohue, John J.

Abstract

In this article, we perform sensible robustness checks and estimation techniques that are broadly applicable to researchers studying the effects of concealed carry laws and apply them to recent work by Moody and Lott (2022). While Moody and Lott claim to have found that shall-issue and permitless-carry laws reduce homicide using data ending in 2014, our event-study analysis demonstrates that their model violates the conditional parallel-trends assumption. Additionally, applying methodology from Broderick et al. (2021), we show Moody and Lott’s results are highly sensitive to the removal of a small number of observations. We examine and reject Moody and Lott’s hypothesis that early- and late-adopting “shall-issue” states experienced different outcomes through sensitivity testing of their early–late threshold and applying the Goodman-Bacon (2021) decomposition. Following De Chaisemartin and d’Haultfoeuille (2020), we show Moody and Lott’s results are biased by heterogeneous treatment effects. Overall, our results highlight the importance of conducting principled validity and sensitivity checks before introducing outlier estimates into the empirical literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Bondy, Matthew V. & Cai, Samuel V. & Donohue, John J., 2023. "Estimating the effect of U.S. concealed carry laws on homicide: A replication and sensitivity analysis," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:irlaec:v:75:y:2023:i:c:s0144818823000194
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2023.106141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0144818823000194
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irle.2023.106141?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G. & Webb, Matthew D., 2020. "Randomization inference for difference-in-differences with few treated clusters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 435-450.
    2. Ludwig, Jens, 1998. "Concealed-gun-carrying laws and violent crime: evidence from state panel data," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 239-254, September.
    3. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    4. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
    5. John J. Donohue & Abhay Aneja & Kyle D. Weber, 2019. "Right‐to‐Carry Laws and Violent Crime: A Comprehensive Assessment Using Panel Data and a State‐Level Synthetic Control Analysis," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(2), pages 198-247, June.
    6. Willem M. Van Der Wal, 2022. "Marginal Structural Models to Estimate Causal Effects of Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime," Statistics and Public Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 163-174, December.
    7. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    8. Charles F. Manski & John V. Pepper, 2018. "How Do Right-to-Carry Laws Affect Crime Rates? Coping with Ambiguity Using Bounded-Variation Assumptions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 232-244, May.
    9. Timothy G. Conley & Christopher R. Taber, 2011. "Inference with "Difference in Differences" with a Small Number of Policy Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 113-125, February.
    10. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    11. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer, 2019. "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1405-1454.
    12. Black, Dan A & Nagin, Daniel S, 1998. "Do Right-to-Carry Laws Deter Violent Crime?," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 209-219, January.
    13. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    14. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Rubin, Paul H, 1998. "Lives Saved or Lives Lost? The Effects of Concealed-Handgun Laws on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 468-474, May.
    15. Jens Otto Ludwig, 1998. "Concealed-Gun-Carrying Laws and Violent Crime: Evidence from State Panel Data," JCPR Working Papers 31, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    16. Lott, John R, Jr & Mustard, David B, 1997. "Crime, Deterrence, and Right-to-Carry Concealed Handguns," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-68, January.
    17. Barati, Mehdi & Adams, Scott, 2019. "Enhanced penalties for carrying firearms illegally and their effects on crime," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 207-219.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    2. Luis Alvarez & Bruno Ferman, 2023. "Extensions for Inference in Difference-in-Differences with Few Treated Clusters," Papers 2302.03131, arXiv.org.
    3. Jonathan Colmer & Jennifer L. Doleac, 2023. "Access to guns in the heat of the moment: more restrictive gun laws mitigate the effect of temperature on violence," CEP Discussion Papers dp1934, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Gius, Mark, 2019. "Using the synthetic control method to determine the effects of concealed carry laws on state-level murder rates," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-11.
    5. Rik Chakraborti & Gavin Roberts, 2023. "How price-gouging regulation undermined COVID-19 mitigation: county-level evidence of unintended consequences," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 196(1), pages 51-83, July.
    6. Bas Scheer & Wiljan van den Berge & Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2022. "Alternative Work Arrangements and Worker Outcomes: Evidence from Payrolling," CPB Discussion Paper 435, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Durlauf, Steven N. & Navarro, Salvador & Rivers, David A., 2016. "Model uncertainty and the effect of shall-issue right-to-carry laws on crime," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-67.
    8. Mark Kattenberg & Bas Scheer & Jurre Thiel, 2023. "Causal forests with fixed effects for treatment effect heterogeneity in difference-in-differences," CPB Discussion Paper 452, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    9. Davidson, Carl & Heyman, Fredrik & Matusz, Steven & Sjöholm, Fredrik & Chun Zhu, Susan, 2022. "How International Experience Helps Shape Labor Market Outcomes," Working Paper Series 1453, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 09 Jun 2024.
    10. Melnik, Walter & Smyth, Andrew, 2024. "R&D tax credits and innovation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    11. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    12. OKUDAIRA Hiroko & TAKIZAWA Miho & YAMANOUCHI Kenta, 2022. "Does Employee Downsizing Work? Evidence from Product Innovation at Manufacturing Plants," Discussion papers 22015, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Bruno Ferman, 2023. "Inference in difference‐in‐differences: How much should we trust in independent clusters?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 358-369, April.
    14. Brick, Kerri & De Martino, Samantha & Visser, Martine, 2023. "Behavioural nudges for water conservation in unequal settings: Experimental evidence from Cape Town," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    15. Wang, Zhen & Chu, Erming, 2024. "The path toward urban carbon neutrality: How does the low-carbon city pilot policy stimulate low-carbon technology?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 954-975.
    16. Barati, Mehdi, 2016. "New evidence on the impact of concealed carry weapon laws on crime," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 76-83.
    17. Briggs Depew & Isaac D. Swensen, 2019. "The Decision to Carry: The Effect of Crime on Concealed-Carry Applications," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(4), pages 1121-1153.
    18. Myungkou Shin, 2022. "Finitely Heterogeneous Treatment Effect in Event-study," Papers 2204.02346, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    19. Brehm, Johannes & Pestel, Nico & Schaffner, Sandra & Schmitz, Laura, 2022. "From low emission zone to academic track: Environmental policy effects on educational achievement in elementary school," Ruhr Economic Papers 980, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    20. Elisa Facchetti & Lorenzo Neri & Marco Ovidi, 2021. "Should you Meet The Parents? The impact of information on non-test score attributes on school choice," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def113, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Guns; Crime; Right-to-carry; Homicide;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:irlaec:v:75:y:2023:i:c:s0144818823000194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/irle .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.