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Model Uncertainty and the Effect of Shall-Issue Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime

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Abstract

In this paper, we explore the role of model uncertainty in explaining the different findings in the literature regarding the effect of shall-issue right-to-carry concealed weapons laws on crime. In particular, we systematically examine how different modeling assumptions affect the results. We find little support for some widely used assumptions in the literature (e.g., population weights), but find that allowing for the effect of the law to be heterogeneous across both counties and over time is important for explaining the observed patterns of crime. In terms of model uncertainty, we find that there is substantial variation in the estimated effects for each model across all dimensions of the model space. This suggests that one should be cautious in using the results from any particular model to inform policy decisions.

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  • Steven N. Durlauf & Salvador Navarro & David A. Rivers, 2014. "Model Uncertainty and the Effect of Shall-Issue Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20144, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    • Handle: RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:20144
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    3. Deiana, C, 2016. "Local Labour Market Effects of Unemployment on Crime Induced by Trade Shocks," Economics Discussion Papers 16529, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
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    7. Briggs Depew & Isaac D. Swensen, 2019. "The Decision to Carry: The Effect of Crime on Concealed-Carry Applications," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(4), pages 1121-1153.

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    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • K0 - Law and Economics - - General

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