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Interest rate spreads in the eurozone: Fundamentals or sentiments?

Author

Listed:
  • Maximilian Gödl

    (University of Graz)

  • Jörn Kleinert

    (University of Graz)

Abstract

We analyze the determinants of interest rates on long-term government bonds within the eurozone to assess whether the recent divergence in interest rates is attributable to changes in common economic fundamentals. First, we argue that the panel regression approach commonly employed in existing literature has conceptual as well as empirical problems. Therefore we take an event study approach using high-frequency (daily) data to investigate the impact of three categories of news events on eurozone bond yields. Our results indicate that yields react to news on key economic indicators such as growth and budget deficit forecasts. By contrast, we do not find evidence that investors react to announcements of fiscal bailouts or austerity measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Maximilian Gödl & Jörn Kleinert, 2016. "Interest rate spreads in the eurozone: Fundamentals or sentiments?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(3), pages 449-475, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:152:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10290-016-0252-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-016-0252-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Monteiro, Sofia, 2024. "Beyond borders: Assessing the influence of Geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Serhan Cevik & Belma Öztürkkal, 2021. "Contagion of fear: Is the impact of COVID‐19 on sovereign risk really indiscriminate?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 134-154, August.
    4. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar & Kazemi, Mina, 2020. "The effects of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary policy announcements on sovereign bond spreads," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Mina Kazemi, 2019. "The Effects of Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Announcements on Sovereign Bond Spreads: An Event Study from the EMU," Working Papers REM 2019/67, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Bagnai, Alberto & Granville, Brigitte & Mongeau Ospina, Christian A., 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 524-538.
    7. Mr. Serhan Cevik & João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "This Changes Everything: Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds," IMF Working Papers 2020/079, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Cevik, Serhan & Jalles, João Tovar, 2022. "This changes everything: Climate shocks and sovereign bonds⁎," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    9. Alberto Bagnai & Brigitte Granville & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the Eurozone: stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," a/ Working Papers Series 1702, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    10. Yelkesen, OÄŸuzhan, 2022. "The Dynamic Link between Bond Spreads and Fiscal Indicators: An Empirical Investigation of Turkey," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 29(2).
    11. Oussama Kchaou & Makram Bellalah & Sofiane Tahi, 2022. "Transmission of the Greek crisis on the sovereign debt markets in the euro area," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1117-1139, June.
    12. Wojciech Grabowski & Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, 2019. "News Releases, Credit Rating Announcements, and Anti-Crisis Measures as Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Peripheral Euro-Area Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(2), pages 149-173, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest spreads; Public debt; Event study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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