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Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes

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Listed:
  • Strauch, Rolf
  • Hallerberg, Mark
  • von Hagen, Jürgen

Abstract

We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and institutional factors can explain this pattern. Our analysis indicates that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes in the budgetary position are mainly affected by the cycle, the need of convergence before EMU and by electoral cycles. JEL Classification: C53, E17, H62

Suggested Citation

  • Strauch, Rolf & Hallerberg, Mark & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes," Working Paper Series 307, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004307
    Note: 339130
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    2. Mark Hallerberg & Rolf Strauch, 2002. "On the Cyclicality of Public Finances in Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 183-207, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    budget processes; Fiscal forecasting; forecast evaluation; Stability and Growth Pact;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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