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Forecasting performance of multivariate time series models with full and reduced rank: an empirical examination

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  • Wang, Zijun
  • Bessler, David A.

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  • Wang, Zijun & Bessler, David A., 2004. "Forecasting performance of multivariate time series models with full and reduced rank: an empirical examination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 683-695.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:20:y:2004:i:4:p:683-695
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    1. Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1998. "Cointegration and Long-Horizon Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 450-458, October.
    2. Tiao, George C & Tsay, Ruey S, 1983. "Multiple Time Series Modeling and Extended Sample Cross-Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(1), pages 43-56, January.
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    4. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    5. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, September.
    6. Kohn, R, 1979. "Asymptotic Estimation and Hypothesis Testing Results for Vector Linear Time Series Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 1005-1030, July.
    7. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1996. "Assessing Forecast Performance in a Cointegrated System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 495-517, Sept.-Oct.
    8. Lin, Jin-Lung & Tsay, Ruey S, 1996. "Co-integration Constraint and Forecasting: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 519-538, Sept.-Oct.
    9. Wang, Zijun & Bessler, David A, 2002. "The Homogeneity Restriction and Forecasting Performance of VAR-Type Demand Systems: An Empirical Examination of US Meat Consumption," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 193-206, April.
    10. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-259, April.
    11. Kling, John L. & Bessler, David A., 1985. "A comparison of multivariate forecasting procedures for economic time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 5-24.
    12. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    13. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    14. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    15. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tu, Yundong & Yi, Yanping, 2017. "Forecasting cointegrated nonstationary time series with time-varying variance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 83-98.
    2. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi, 2012. "Implications of Cointegration for Forecasting: A Review and an Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 7(1), pages 87-118, October.
    3. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    4. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    5. Hansen, Bjørn Gunnar & Li, Yushu, 2015. "Future world market prices of milk and feed looking into the crystal ball," Discussion Papers 2015/17, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    6. Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Mu, Jianhong E. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Bessler, David A., 2013. "Impacts of BSE and Avian Influenza on U.S. Meat Demand," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150392, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Athanasopoulos, George & Issler, João Victor & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho, 2005. "Forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty using VAR models with short- and long-term economic restrictions: a Monte-Carlo study," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 589, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    9. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "Short-run price forecast performance of individual and composite models for 496 corn cash markets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(14), pages 2593-2620, October.
    10. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Forecasting the total market value of a shares traded in the Shenzhen stock exchange via the neural network," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1266-1279.
    11. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2023. "Coking coal futures price index forecasting with the neural network," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 349-359, June.
    12. Iqbal, Javed, 2011. "Forecasting Performance of Alternative Error Correction Models," MPRA Paper 29826, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2011.
    13. Xiaojie Xu, 2020. "Corn Cash Price Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1297-1320, August.

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