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The relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in spain: common cycles and health issues

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  • Antonio García‐ferrer
  • Aránzazu De Juan
  • Pilar Poncela

Abstract

This paper analyses the aggregate relationships between traffic accidents and real economic activity in Spain during the last 30 years. Our general approach is based on two basic assumptions: (1) the number of accidents depends on the use of cars and other exogenous variables, and (2) the level of economic activity affects variation in the stock of cars, as well as degree of utilization. We propose a novel turning point characterization for monthly seasonal data that allows to check whether economic and road accident cycles coincide and, to date the beginning and end of their respective cycles. Empirical results from this section are important in establishing posterior causal models and whether or not economic activity and road accidents have a common component in the long run and a varying lead–lag relationship, depending on the cycles. These models will be the basis to check when Spain will achieve the European Union figures in terms of the fatalities/accidents ratio under different scenarios. Empirical results as well as historical experiences from other European countries proved that reducing fatalities is not only a question of diminishing accidents rates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Antonio García‐ferrer & Aránzazu De Juan & Pilar Poncela, 2007. "The relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in spain: common cycles and health issues," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 603-626, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:16:y:2007:i:6:p:603-626
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1186
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    1. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Castro-Nuño, Mercedes & Fageda, Xavier, 2015. "Are traffic violators criminals? Searching for answers in the experiences of European countries," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 86-94.
    2. Yoshitsugu Kitazawa, 2010. "Size of economic activity and occurrence of fatal traffic accidents: a count panel data analysis on Fukuoka prefecture in Japan," Discussion Papers 41, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
    3. Dadashova, Bahar & Ramírez Arenas, Blanca & McWilliams Mira, José & Izquierdo Aparicio, Francisco, 2014. "Explanatory and prediction power of two macro models. An application to van-involved accidents in Spain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 203-217.
    4. Harizi Riadh, 2021. "Land artificialization, economic growth, and road insecurity: Theoretical improvements and empirical validation for the case of Algeria," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 18(1), pages 241-255, April.
    5. Mercedes Castro-Nuno & José I. Castillo-Manzano & Diego J. Pedregal-Tercero, 2013. "The Speed Limits Debate: Is Effective A Temporary Change? The Case Of Spain," ERSA conference papers ersa13p160, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Castro-Nuño, Mercedes & Pedregal-Tercero, Diego J., 2014. "Temporary speed limit changes: An econometric estimation of the effects of the Spanish Energy Efficiency and Saving Plan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 68-76.
    7. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Castro-Nuño, Mercedes & López-Valpuesta, Lourdes & Pedregal, Diego J., 2019. "From legislation to compliance: The power of traffic law enforcement for the case study of Spain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-9.
    8. Daniel Albalate & Germa Bel, 2008. "Motorways, tolls and road safety.Evidence from European Panel Data," IREA Working Papers 200802, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2008.
    9. Martínez-Gabaldón, Eduardo & Méndez Martínez, Ildefonso & Martínez-Pérez, Jorge Eduardo, 2020. "Estimating the impact of the Penalty Point System on road fatalities in Spain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-8.
    10. Castro-Nuño, Mercedes & Arévalo-Quijada, M. Teresa, 2018. "Assessing urban road safety through multidimensional indexes: Application of multicriteria decision making analysis to rank the Spanish provinces," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 118-129.
    11. José Castillo-Manzano & Mercedes Castro-Nuño & Xavier Fageda, 2014. "Can health public expenditure reduce the tragic consequences of road traffic accidents? The EU-27 experience," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(6), pages 645-652, July.
    12. Francisco Calvo-Poyo & José Navarro-Moreno & Juan de Oña, 2020. "Road Investment and Traffic Safety: An International Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-15, August.
    13. Yueh-Tzu Lu & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2017. "Smeed fs Law and the Role of Hospitals in Modeling Fatalities and Traffic Accidents," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 17-22, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    14. Yueh-Tzu Lu & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2019. "Smeed’s law and the role of hospitals in modeling traffic accidents and fatalities in Japan," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 319-332, June.
    15. Biondi, Beatrice & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2024. "An empirical analysis of the effect of economic activity and COVID-19 restrictions on road traffic accidents in Italy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

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