IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/joares/v45y2007i3p607-628.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Directional Preferences, Information Processing, and Investors' Forecasts of Earnings

Author

Listed:
  • JEFFREY HALES

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of preferences on judgments in an investing context, where investors should be motivated to interpret information objectively, yet have clear preferences with respect to what the information they are evaluating conveys (i.e., a gain or a loss on their investment). The results of the experiment are consistent with theories of motivated reasoning that predict when and in what manner directional preferences affect how information is processed. Specifically, investors are motivated to agree unthinkingly with information that suggests they might make money on their investment, but disagree with information that suggests they might lose money. In disagreeing, long investors expect earnings to be relatively high and short investors expect earnings to be relatively low. These results have implications not only for understanding investor behavior, but also for understanding the biased behavior of market participants who face conflicts of interest, such as analysts, managers, and auditors, by providing direct evidence that such behavior can arise for purely psychological reasons.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Hales, 2007. "Directional Preferences, Information Processing, and Investors' Forecasts of Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 607-628, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:45:y:2007:i:3:p:607-628
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-679X.2007.00247.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2007.00247.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2007.00247.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hsee, Christopher K., 1996. "Elastic Justification: How Unjustifiable Factors Influence Judgments," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 122-129, April.
    2. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    3. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    4. Richard H. Willis, 2001. "Mutual Fund Manager Forecasting Behavior," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 707-725, December.
    5. Kennedy, J & Mitchell, T & Sefcik, SE, 1998. "Disclosure of contingent environmental liabilities: Some unintended consequences?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 257-277.
    6. Maines, Laureen A., 1996. "An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 223-233, June.
    7. Daylian M. Cain & George Loewenstein & Don A. Moore, 2005. "The Dirt on Coming Clean: Perverse Effects of Disclosing Conflicts of Interest," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 1-25, January.
    8. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-872, August.
    9. J B Heaton, 2002. "Managerial Optimism and Corporate Finance," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(2), Summer.
    10. Maines, La, 1990. "The Effect Of Forecast Redundancy On Judgments Of A Consensus Forecasts Expected Accuracy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28, pages 29-47.
    11. Schweitzer, Maurice E & Hsee, Christopher K, 2002. "Stretching the Truth: Elastic Justification and Motivated Communication of Uncertain Information," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 185-201, September.
    12. Cowen, Amanda & Groysberg, Boris & Healy, Paul, 2006. "Which types of analyst firms are more optimistic?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 119-146, April.
    13. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    14. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Weber, Martin & Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184, January.
    16. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2003. "Limited attention, information disclosure, and financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 337-386, December.
    17. Boiney, Lindsley G. & Kennedy, Jane & Nye, Pete, 1997. "Instrumental Bias in Motivated Reasoning: More When More Is Needed," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 1-24, October.
    18. Hsee, Christopher K., 1995. "Elastic Justification: How Tempting but Task-Irrelevant Factors Influence Decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 330-337, June.
    19. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1775-1798 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Hirst, DE & Hopkins, PE, 1998. "Comprehensive income reporting and analysts' valuation judgments," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36, pages 47-75.
    21. John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
    22. Thompson, Leigh & Loewenstein, George, 1992. "Egocentric interpretations of fairness and interpersonal conflict," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 176-197, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    2. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    3. Mi‐Hsiu Chiang & Hsin‐Yu Chiu & Robin K. Chou, 2021. "Relevance of the disposition effect on the options market: New evidence," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(1), pages 75-106, March.
    4. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    5. Jun Han & Hun‐Tong Tan, 2010. "Investors' Reactions to Management Earnings Guidance: The Joint Effect of Investment Position, News Valence, and Guidance Form," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 81-104, March.
    6. Mayorga, Diane & Trotman, Ken T., 2016. "The effects of a reasonable investor perspective and firm's prior disclosure policy on managers' disclosure judgments," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 50-62.
    7. Shalvi, Shaul & Dana, Jason & Handgraaf, Michel J.J. & De Dreu, Carsten K.W., 2011. "Justified ethicality: Observing desired counterfactuals modifies ethical perceptions and behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 181-190, July.
    8. Elina Pradkhan, 2016. "Information Content of Trading Activity in Precious Metals Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 421-456, May.
    9. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, July.
    10. David Hirshleifer & Sonya S. Lim & Siew Hong Teoh, 2011. "Limited Investor Attention and Stock Market Misreactions to Accounting Information," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 35-73.
    11. Mark Wong & Adrian Wai Kong Cheung & Wei Hu, 2021. "When two anomalies meet: Volume and timing effects on earnings announcements," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 355-380, May.
    12. Terrance Odean., 1996. "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Trader Are Above Average," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-266, University of California at Berkeley.
    13. Jaya M. Prosad & Sujata Kapoor & Jhumur Sengupta & Saurav Roychoudhary, 2017. "Overconfidence and Disposition Effect in Indian Equity Market: An Empirical Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(5), pages 1303-1321, October.
    14. Chuang, Wen-I & Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Susmel, Rauli, 2012. "The bivariate GARCH approach to investigating the relation between stock returns, trading volume, and return volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15.
    15. Hung-Lin Tao, 2013. "Informational Ambiguity and Survey Bias: Husbands’ and Wives’ Reports on Their Contribution to Their Families," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 713-724, May.
    16. Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2009. "Which past returns affect trading volume?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-31, February.
    17. Brunner, Fabian & Gamm, Fabian & Mill, Wladislaw, 2023. "MyPortfolio: The IKEA effect in financial investment decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    18. Li, Yan & Yang, Liyan, 2013. "Prospect theory, the disposition effect, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 715-739.
    19. Palomino, Frederic & Renneboog, Luc & Zhang, Chendi, 2009. "Information salience, investor sentiment, and stock returns: The case of British soccer betting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 368-387, June.
    20. Jin, Li & Kothari, S.P., 2008. "Effect of personal taxes on managers' decisions to sell their stock," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 23-46, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:45:y:2007:i:3:p:607-628. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-8456 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.