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Accuracy and rationality of state General Fund Revenue forecasts: Evidence from panel data

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  • Mocan, H. Naci
  • Azad, Sam

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  • Mocan, H. Naci & Azad, Sam, 1995. "Accuracy and rationality of state General Fund Revenue forecasts: Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 417-427, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:417-427
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feenberg, Daniel R, et al, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 300-308, May.
    2. Cassidy, Glenn & Kamlet, Mark S. & Nagin, Daniel S., 1989. "An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 321-331.
    3. Shkurti, William J. & Winefordner, Darrell, 1989. "The politics of state revenue forecasting in Ohio, 1984-1987: A case study and research implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-371.
    4. Gentry, William M., 1989. "Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 42(4), pages 429-439, December.
    5. Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L. & Grizzle, Gloria & Klay, Earle, 1989. "Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 307-319.
    6. Bretschneider, Stuart & Gorr, Wilpen, 1992. "Economic, organizational, and political influences on biases in forecasting state sales tax receipts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 457-466, March.
    7. Brown, Bryan W & Maital, Shlomo, 1981. "What Do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 491-504, March.
    8. Mullineaux, Donald J, 1978. "On Testing for Rationality: Another Look at the Livingston Price Expectations Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(2), pages 329-336, April.
    9. Gentry, William M., 1989. "Do State Revenue Forecasters Utilize Available Information," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 42(4), pages 429-39, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    2. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
    3. Chatagny, Florian, 2015. "Incentive effects of fiscal rules on the finance minister's behavior: Evidence from revenue projections in Swiss Cantons," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 184-200.
    4. M. Mokliak, P. Chernov, A. Vdovychenko, A. Zubritskyi, 2015. "Spatial approach in forecasting tax revenues," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 2, pages 7-20.
    5. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    6. Deschamps, Elaine, 2004. "The impact of institutional change on forecast accuracy: A case study of budget forecasting in Washington State," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 647-657.
    7. repec:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:1:p:85-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. H. Naci Mocan, 2001. "Can Consumers Detect Lemons? Information Asymmetry in the Market for Child Care," NBER Working Papers 8291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Chatagny, Florian & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2015. "Evaluating rationality of level and growth rate forecasts of direct tax revenues under flexible loss function: Evidence from Swiss cantons," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 65-68.
    10. Naci Mocan, 2007. "Can consumers detect lemons? An empirical analysis of information asymmetry in the market for child care," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 20(4), pages 743-780, October.
    11. Mr. Stephan Danninger, 2005. "Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/014, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Working Papers 1233, Banco de España.
    13. Breuer Christian, 2015. "On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(1), pages 22-40, February.
    14. W. Robert Reed & Cynthia L. Rogers, 2006. "Tax Burden and the Mismeasurement of State Tax Policy," Public Finance Review, , vol. 34(4), pages 404-426, July.
    15. Mr. Mikhail Golosov & Mr. John R King, 2002. "Tax Revenue Forecasts in IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 2002/236, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Florian Chatagny & Nils Soguel, 2012. "The effect of tax revenue budgeting errors on fiscal balance: evidence from the Swiss cantons," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(3), pages 319-337, June.
    17. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    18. Stijn Goeminne & Benny Geys & Carine Smolders, 2008. "Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(3), pages 297-315, June.
    19. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Annette J Kyobe & Mr. M. Cangiano, 2005. "The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2005/002, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Boukari, Mamadou & Veiga, Francisco José, 2018. "Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1030-1045.
    21. Krol, Robert, 2013. "Evaluating state revenue forecasting under a flexible loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 282-289.
    22. Nithin K. & Roy, Rathin, 2014. "Finance Commission of India's Assessments: A Political Economy Contention between Expectations and Outcomes," Working Papers 14/141, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    23. Rathin Roy, 2015. "Finance Commission of India’s Assessments: A Political Economy Contention between Expectations and Outcomes," Working Papers id:6581, eSocialSciences.

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