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Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance

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  • Thiess Buettner
  • Bjoern Kauder

Abstract

This paper reviews the practice and performance of revenue forecasting in selected OECD countries. While the mean forecast errors are small in most countries, the precision of the forecasts measured by the standard deviation of the forecast error differs substantially across countries. Based on a comparison of forecasting practices we show that these differences can be attributed to a large part to differences in the timing of the forecasts and in the tax structure. In addition, we find some evidence that differences in methods and institutions also matter for the forecasting precision. In particular, we find that the use of macroeconomic models as well as the independence of revenue forecasting are associated with a lower standard deviation of the forecast error.
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  • Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2010. "Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 313-340, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:31:y:2010:i:3:p:313-340
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    Cited by:

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    2. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
    3. António Afonso & Rui Carvalho, 2014. "Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/02, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    5. Arai, Natsuki & Iizuka, Nobuo & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2022. "The Efficiency of the Government’s Revenue Projections," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-122, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Ondřej Bayer, 2013. "Research of Estimates of Tax Revenue: An Overview," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(3), pages 59-73.
    7. Ademmer Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe Jens, 2022. "The Impact of Forecast Errors on Fiscal Planning and Debt Accumulation," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 242(2), pages 171-190, April.
    8. Boukari, Mamadou & Veiga, Francisco José, 2018. "Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1030-1045.
    9. Andersen, Torben M., 2013. "Fiscal policy targeting under imperfect information," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 114-130.
    10. Kaplanoglou, Georgia & Rapanos, Vassilis T., 2011. "The Greek fiscal crisis and the role of fiscal governance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 36432, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Zhiyong An & Yilin Hou, 2020. "Debt authority and intentional overstatement of budgetary deficit: evidence from Chinese Provinces," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 461-477, April.
    12. Hayley Pallan, 2022. "Sovereign Spreads and Corporate Taxation," IHEID Working Papers 15-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Cepparulo, Alessandra & Gastaldi, Francesca & Giuriato, Luisa & Sacchi, Agnese, 2011. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy:the Italian case," MPRA Paper 32474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Mancini, Anna Laura & Tommasino, Pietro, 2023. "Fiscal rules and the reliability of public investment plans: Evidence from local governments," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Breuer Christian, 2015. "On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(1), pages 22-40, February.
    16. Athanassios Petralias & Sotirios Petros & Pródromos Prodromídis, 2013. "Greece in Recession: Economic predictions, mispredictions and policy implications," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 75, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    17. Eddie Casey, 2019. "Inside the "Upside Down": Estimating Ireland's Output Gap," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 5-34.
    18. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    19. Andrew Hannon & Eimear Leahy & Róisín O'Sullivan, 2016. "An Analysis of Tax Forecasting Errors in Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(3), pages 391-423.
    20. Cronin, David & McInerney, Niall, 2023. "Official fiscal forecasts in EU member states under the European Semester and Fiscal Compact – An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    21. Lehmann Robert & Wollmershäuser Timo, 2020. "The macroeconomic projections of the German government: A comparison to an independent forecasting institution," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 235-270, June.
    22. Õie Renata Siimon & Oliver Lukason, 2021. "A Decision Support System for Corporate Tax Arrears Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-23, July.
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    24. Niall Conroy, 2023. "The Role of Elasticities in Forecasting Irish Income Tax Revenue," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 54(2), pages 149-172.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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