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State budget stabilization fund adoption: Preparing for the next recession or circumventing fiscal constraints?

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  • Gary Wagner
  • Russell Sobel

Abstract

The high rate of budget stabilization fund adoption during the 1980s is often attributed to the 1980–1982 recession. In this view, states adopted funds to prevent a recurrence of the fiscal crises experienced during that recession. An alternative hypothesis is that some funds adopted during this period were intended to circumvent tax and expenditure limit laws. We find that states with TELs in place were significantly more likely to adopt statutory funds, but were significantly less likely to adopt funds with stringent deposit and withdrawal rules, suggesting that some funds were adopted to circumvent existing fiscal constraints. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

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  • Gary Wagner & Russell Sobel, 2006. "State budget stabilization fund adoption: Preparing for the next recession or circumventing fiscal constraints?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 177-199, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:126:y:2006:i:1:p:177-199
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-006-7752-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sobel, Russell S, 1998. "The Political Costs of Tax Increases and Expenditure Reductions: Evidence from State Legislative Turnover," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 96(1-2), pages 61-79, July.
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    12. Wagner, Gary A., 2003. "Are state budget stabilization funds only the illusion of savings?: Evidence from stationary panel data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 213-238.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tima T. Moldogaziev & Tatyana Guzman, 2015. "Economic Crises, Economic Structure, and State Credit Quality Through-the-Cycle," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 42-67, December.
    2. Jackson, Jeremy, 2018. "Prairie Prosperity: An Economic Guide for the State of North Dakota," Annals of Computational Economics, George Mason University, Mercatus Center, October.
    3. George Crowley, 2012. "Spatial dependence in constitutional constraints: the case of US states," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 134-165, June.
    4. Gonzalez, Christian Y. & Paqueo, Vicente B., 2003. "Social sector expenditures and rainy-day funds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3131, The World Bank.
    5. Craig, Steven G. & Hemissi, Wided & Mukherjee, Satadru & Sørensen, Bent E., 2016. "How do politicians save? Buffer-stock management of unemployment insurance finance," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 18-29.
    6. Fabrizio Balassone & Daniele Franco & Stefania Zotteri, 2007. "Rainy day funds: can they make a difference in Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 11, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Wenchi Wei & Dwight V. Denison, 2019. "State Rainy Day Funds and Government General Fund Expenditures: Revisiting the Stabilization Effect," Public Finance Review, , vol. 47(3), pages 465-492, May.
    8. Wilson, Matthew, 2023. "State government saving over the business cycle," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. Christian Buerger & Vincent Reitano & Ciana Sorrentino, 2022. "State fiscal reserves: Supplementation and substitution over economic boom and bust years," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 98-118, March.
    10. Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2018. "Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery after Recessions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 675-704, June.
    11. Trang Hoang & Craig S. Maher, 2022. "Fiscal condition, institutional constraints, and public pension contribution: are pension contribution shortfalls fiscal illusion?," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 93-124, December.
    12. John Merrifield & Barry W. Poulson, 2014. "State Fiscal Policies for Budget Stabilization and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Scoring Analysis," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 34(1), pages 47-81, Winter.
    13. Bo Zhao, 2014. "Saving for a rainy day: estimating the appropriate size of U.S. state budget stabilization funds," Working Papers 14-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    14. Zhao, Bo, 2016. "Saving for a rainy day: Estimating the needed size of U.S. state budget stabilization funds," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 130-152.
    15. Russell S. Sobel & Gary A. Wagner & Peter T. Calcagno, 2024. "The political economy of state economic development incentives: A case of rent extraction," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 104-151, March.

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