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An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments

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  • Cassidy, Glenn
  • Kamlet, Mark S.
  • Nagin, Daniel S.

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  • Cassidy, Glenn & Kamlet, Mark S. & Nagin, Daniel S., 1989. "An empirical examination of bias in revenue forecasts by state governments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 321-331.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:5:y:1989:i:3:p:321-331
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    Cited by:

    1. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
    2. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
    3. Chatagny, Florian, 2015. "Incentive effects of fiscal rules on the finance minister's behavior: Evidence from revenue projections in Swiss Cantons," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 184-200.
    4. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    5. Chakraborty, Lekha & Jha, Ajay Narayan & Yadav, Jitesh & Kaur, Amandeep, 2023. "Fiscal Behaviour and Climate Change Commitments in India: Analysing the Budget Credibility," Working Papers 23/396, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    6. repec:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:1:p:85-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mr. Stephan Danninger, 2005. "Revenue Forecasts as Performance Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/014, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Working Papers 1233, Banco de España.
    9. Mocan, H. Naci & Azad, Sam, 1995. "Accuracy and rationality of state General Fund Revenue forecasts: Evidence from panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 417-427, September.
    10. Lekha Chakraborty & Pinaki Chakraborty & Ruzel Shrestha, 2020. "Budget Credibility of Subnational Governments: Analyzing the Fiscal Forecasting Errors of 28 States in India," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_964, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. W. Robert Reed & Cynthia L. Rogers, 2006. "Tax Burden and the Mismeasurement of State Tax Policy," Public Finance Review, , vol. 34(4), pages 404-426, July.
    12. Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 553-576, August.
    13. Mehdi Alaoui Mhammedi, 2016. "Erreurs de prévision budgétaire : Étude exploratoire des causes des excédents budgétaires dans les structures communales au Maroc," Post-Print hal-01901125, HAL.
    14. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    15. George A. Krause & David E. Lewis & James W. Douglas, 2013. "Politics Can Limit Policy Opportunism in Fiscal Institutions: Evidence from Official General Fund Revenue Forecasts in the American States," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 271-295, March.
    16. Chakraborty, Lekha & Chakraborty, Pinaki & Shrestha, Ruzel, 2019. "Budget Credibility of Subnational Governments: Analyzing the Fiscal Forecasting Errors of 28 States in India," MPRA Paper 95921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Stijn Goeminne & Benny Geys & Carine Smolders, 2008. "Political fragmentation and projected tax revenues: evidence from Flemish municipalities," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(3), pages 297-315, June.
    18. Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.
    19. Mr. Stephan Danninger & Ms. Annette J Kyobe & Mr. M. Cangiano, 2005. "The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2005/002, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Krol, Robert, 2013. "Evaluating state revenue forecasting under a flexible loss function," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 282-289.
    21. Zhiyong An & Yilin Hou, 2020. "Debt authority and intentional overstatement of budgetary deficit: evidence from Chinese Provinces," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 461-477, April.
    22. Leal Linares, Teresa & Pérez García, Javier J., 2011. "Análisis de las desviaciones presupuestarias aplicado al caso del presupuesto del Estado/The Performance of the Budgetary Target of the Central Government in Spain," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 909(14á.)-9, Diciembre.
    23. Orazem, Peter F, 2017. "An Evaluation of the State of Iowa Revenue Forecasts, 1995 – 2017," ISU General Staff Papers 201712010800001036, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

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