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Risk aggregation in multivariate dependent Pareto distributions

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  • Sarabia, José María
  • Gómez-Déniz, Emilio
  • Prieto, Faustino
  • Jordá, Vanesa

Abstract

In this paper we obtain closed expressions for the probability distribution function of aggregated risks with multivariate dependent Pareto distributions. We work with the dependent multivariate Pareto type II proposed by Arnold (1983, 2015), which is widely used in insurance and risk analysis. We begin with an individual risk model, where the probability density function corresponds to a second kind beta distribution, obtaining the VaR, TVaR and several other tail risk measures. Then, we consider a collective risk model based on dependence, where several general properties are studied. We study in detail some relevant collective models with Poisson, negative binomial and logarithmic distributions as primary distributions. In the collective Pareto–Poisson model, the probability density function is a function of the Kummer confluent hypergeometric function, and the density of the Pareto–negative binomial is a function of the Gauss hypergeometric function. Using data based on one-year vehicle insurance policies taken out in 2004–2005 (Jong and Heller, 2008) we conclude that our collective dependent models outperform other collective models considered in the actuarial literature in terms of AIC and CAIC statistics.

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  • Sarabia, José María & Gómez-Déniz, Emilio & Prieto, Faustino & Jordá, Vanesa, 2016. "Risk aggregation in multivariate dependent Pareto distributions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 154-163.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:71:y:2016:i:c:p:154-163
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.07.009
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    7. Fouad Marri & Khouzeima Moutanabbir, 2021. "Risk aggregation and capital allocation using a new generalized Archimedean copula," Working Papers hal-03169291, HAL.
    8. Gribkova, N.V. & Su, J. & Zitikis, R., 2022. "Inference for the tail conditional allocation: Large sample properties, insurance risk assessment, and compound sums of concomitants," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 199-222.
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    11. Furman, Edward & Kuznetsov, Alexey & Zitikis, Ričardas, 2018. "Weighted risk capital allocations in the presence of systematic risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 75-81.

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