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Minimizing the probability of lifetime drawdown under constant consumption

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  • Angoshtari, Bahman
  • Bayraktar, Erhan
  • Young, Virginia R.

Abstract

We assume that an individual invests in a financial market with one riskless and one risky asset, with the latter’s price following geometric Brownian motion as in the Black–Scholes model. Under a constant rate of consumption, we find the optimal investment strategy for the individual who wishes to minimize the probability that her wealth drops below some fixed proportion of her maximum wealth to date, the so-called probability of lifetime drawdown. If maximum wealth is less than a particular value, m∗, then the individual optimally invests in such a way that maximum wealth never increases above its current value. By contrast, if maximum wealth is greater than m∗ but less than the safe level, then the individual optimally allows the maximum to increase to the safe level.

Suggested Citation

  • Angoshtari, Bahman & Bayraktar, Erhan & Young, Virginia R., 2016. "Minimizing the probability of lifetime drawdown under constant consumption," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 210-223.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:69:y:2016:i:c:p:210-223
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.05.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Xinfu & Landriault, David & Li, Bin & Li, Dongchen, 2015. "On minimizing drawdown risks of lifetime investments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 46-54.
    2. Kristen Moore & Virginia Young, 2006. "Optimal and Simple, Nearly Optimal Rules for Minimizing the Probability Of Financial Ruin in Retirement," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 145-161.
    3. Bahman Angoshtari & Erhan Bayraktar & Virginia R. Young, 2015. "Optimal Investment to Minimize the Probability of Drawdown," Papers 1506.00166, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    4. Constantinos Kardaras & Jan Obłój & Eckhard Platen, 2017. "The Numéraire Property And Long-Term Growth Optimality For Drawdown-Constrained Investments," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 68-95, January.
    5. Erhan Bayraktar & Virginia Young, 2011. "Proving regularity of the minimal probability of ruin via a game of stopping and control," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 785-818, December.
    6. Erhan Bayraktar & Masahiko Egami, 2008. "An Analysis of Monotone Follower Problems for Diffusion Processes," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 336-350, May.
    7. Wang, Ting & Young, Virginia R., 2012. "Maximizing the utility of consumption with commutable life annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 352-369.
    8. Erhan Bayraktar & Virginia Young, 2007. "Correspondence between lifetime minimum wealth and utility of consumption," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 213-236, April.
    9. Wang, Ting & Young, Virginia R., 2012. "Optimal commutable annuities to minimize the probability of lifetime ruin," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 200-216.
    10. Virginia Young, 2004. "Optimal Investment Strategy to Minimize the Probability of Lifetime Ruin," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 106-126.
    11. Erhan Bayraktar & Yu-Jui Huang, 2010. "On the Multi-Dimensional Controller and Stopper Games," Papers 1009.0932, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
    12. Marcel Nutz & Jianfeng Zhang, 2012. "Optimal stopping under adverse nonlinear expectation and related games," Papers 1212.2140, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
    13. Sanford J. Grossman & Zhongquan Zhou, 1993. "Optimal Investment Strategies For Controlling Drawdowns," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 241-276, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hongzhong Zhang, 2018. "Stochastic Drawdowns," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10078, August.
    2. Leonie Violetta Brinker, 2021. "Minimal Expected Time in Drawdown through Investment for an Insurance Diffusion Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Angoshtari, Bahman & Bayraktar, Erhan & Young, Virginia R., 2015. "Minimizing the expected lifetime spent in drawdown under proportional consumption," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 106-114.
    4. Milevsky, Moshe A., 2020. "Calibrating Gompertz in reverse: What is your longevity-risk-adjusted global age?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 147-161.
    5. Asaf Cohen & Virginia R. Young, 2015. "Minimizing Lifetime Poverty with a Penalty for Bankruptcy," Papers 1509.01694, arXiv.org.
    6. Wang, Wenyuan & Chen, Ping & Li, Shuanming, 2020. "Generalized expected discounted penalty function at general drawdown for Lévy risk processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 12-25.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal investment; Stochastic optimal control; Probability of drawdown; Optimal controller-stopper problem; Duality argument; And free-boundary problem;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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