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Optimal Investment to Minimize the Probability of Drawdown

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  • Bahman Angoshtari
  • Erhan Bayraktar
  • Virginia R. Young

Abstract

We determine the optimal investment strategy in a Black-Scholes financial market to minimize the so-called {\it probability of drawdown}, namely, the probability that the value of an investment portfolio reaches some fixed proportion of its maximum value to date. We assume that the portfolio is subject to a payout that is a deterministic function of its value, as might be the case for an endowment fund paying at a specified rate, for example, at a constant rate or at a rate that is proportional to the fund's value.

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  • Bahman Angoshtari & Erhan Bayraktar & Virginia R. Young, 2015. "Optimal Investment to Minimize the Probability of Drawdown," Papers 1506.00166, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1506.00166
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Victor C. Pestien & William D. Sudderth, 1985. "Continuous-Time Red and Black: How to Control a Diffusion to a Goal," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 599-611, November.
    2. Romuald Elie & Nizar Touzi, 2008. "Optimal lifetime consumption and investment under a drawdown constraint," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 299-330, July.
    3. Bayraktar, Erhan & Young, Virginia R., 2016. "Optimally investing to reach a bequest goal," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-10.
    4. Erhan Bayraktar & Virginia Young, 2007. "Correspondence between lifetime minimum wealth and utility of consumption," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 213-236, April.
    5. Virginia Young, 2004. "Optimal Investment Strategy to Minimize the Probability of Lifetime Ruin," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 106-126.
    6. Sid Browne, 1997. "Survival and Growth with a Liability: Optimal Portfolio Strategies in Continuous Time," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 22(2), pages 468-493, May.
    7. Nicole Bauerle & Erhan Bayraktar, 2012. "A Note on Applications of Stochastic Ordering to Control Problems in Insurance and Finance," Papers 1210.3800, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2013.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erhan Bayraktar & Yuchong Zhang, 2014. "Stochastic Perron's Method for the Probability of lifetime ruin problem under transaction costs," Papers 1404.7406, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2014.
    2. Philipp M. Möller, 2018. "Drawdown Measures And Return Moments," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(07), pages 1-42, November.
    3. Angoshtari, Bahman & Bayraktar, Erhan & Young, Virginia R., 2016. "Minimizing the probability of lifetime drawdown under constant consumption," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 210-223.
    4. Hongzhong Zhang, 2018. "Stochastic Drawdowns," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10078, December.
    5. Leonie Violetta Brinker, 2021. "Minimal Expected Time in Drawdown through Investment for an Insurance Diffusion Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, January.

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