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Optimal and Simple, Nearly Optimal Rules for Minimizing the Probability Of Financial Ruin in Retirement

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  • Kristen Moore
  • Virginia Young

Abstract

The increasing risk of poverty in retirement has been well documented; it is projected that current and future retirees’ living expenses will significantly exceed their savings and income. In this paper, we consider a retiree who does not have sufficient wealth and income to fund her future expenses, and we seek the asset allocation that minimizes the probability of financial ruin during her lifetime. Building on the work of Young (2004) and Milevsky, Moore, and Young (2006), under general mortality assumptions, we derive a variational inequality that governs the ruin probability and optimal asset allocation. We explore the qualitative properties of the ruin robability and optimal strategy, present a numerical method for their estimation, and examine their sensitivity to changes in model parameters for specific examples. We then present an easy-to-implement allocation rule and demonstrate via simulation that it yields nearly optimal ruin probability, even under discrete portfolio rebalancing.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristen Moore & Virginia Young, 2006. "Optimal and Simple, Nearly Optimal Rules for Minimizing the Probability Of Financial Ruin in Retirement," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 145-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:10:y:2006:i:4:p:145-161
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2006.10597418
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Ting & Young, Virginia R., 2012. "Maximizing the utility of consumption with commutable life annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 352-369.
    2. Angoshtari, Bahman & Bayraktar, Erhan & Young, Virginia R., 2016. "Minimizing the probability of lifetime drawdown under constant consumption," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 210-223.
    3. Cohen, Asaf & Young, Virginia R., 2016. "Minimizing lifetime poverty with a penalty for bankruptcy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 156-167.
    4. Chen, Xinfu & Landriault, David & Li, Bin & Li, Dongchen, 2015. "On minimizing drawdown risks of lifetime investments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 46-54.
    5. Christopher J. Rook, 2015. "Optimal Equity Glidepaths in Retirement," Papers 1506.08400, arXiv.org.
    6. Bayraktar, Erhan & Hu, Xueying & Young, Virginia R., 2011. "Minimizing the probability of lifetime ruin under stochastic volatility," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 194-206, September.
    7. Erhan Bayraktar & Virginia Young, 2010. "Optimal investment strategy to minimize occupation time," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 389-408, April.
    8. Xiaoqing Liang & Virginia R. Young, 2020. "Minimizing the Probability of Lifetime Exponential Parisian Ruin," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 184(3), pages 1036-1064, March.

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