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Time-consistent mean–variance hedging of longevity risk: Effect of cointegration

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  • Wong, Tat Wing
  • Chiu, Mei Choi
  • Wong, Hoi Ying

Abstract

This paper investigates the time-consistent dynamic mean–variance hedging of longevity risk with a longevity security contingent on a mortality index or the national mortality. Using an HJB framework, we solve the hedging problem in which insurance liabilities follow a doubly stochastic Poisson process with an intensity rate that is correlated and cointegrated to the index mortality rate. The derived closed-form optimal hedging policy articulates the important role of cointegration in longevity hedging. We show numerically that a time-consistent hedging policy is a smoother function in time when compared with its time-inconsistent counterpart.

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  • Wong, Tat Wing & Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2014. "Time-consistent mean–variance hedging of longevity risk: Effect of cointegration," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 56-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:56:y:2014:i:c:p:56-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2014.03.001
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    3. Jevtić, Petar & Regis, Luca, 2019. "A continuous-time stochastic model for the mortality surface of multiple populations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 181-195.
    4. Zhou, Kenneth Q. & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2019. "Delta-hedging longevity risk under the M7–M5 model: The impact of cohort effect uncertainty and population basis risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1-21.
    5. Hallin, M. & Werker, B.J.M. & van den Akker, R., 2015. "Optimal Pseudo-Gaussian and Rank-based Tests of the Cointegration Rank in Semiparametric Error-correction Models," Other publications TiSEM d1b040c9-db57-4e55-846f-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Chen, Kexin & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2019. "Time-consistent mean-variance hedging of an illiquid asset with a cointegrated liquid asset," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 184-192.
    7. Tan, Ken Seng & Weng, Chengguo & Zhang, Jinggong, 2022. "Optimal dynamic longevity hedge with basis risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(1), pages 325-337.
    8. Kwok, Kai Yin & Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2016. "Demand for longevity securities under relative performance concerns: Stochastic differential games with cointegration," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 353-366.
    9. David B. Colwell & Nadima El‐Hassan & Oh Kang Kwon, 2021. "Variance minimizing strategies for stochastic processes with applications to tracking stock indices," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 430-446, June.
    10. Dong, Fangyuan & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2015. "Longevity bond pricing under the threshold CIR model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 195-207.
    11. Clemente De Rosa & Elisa Luciano & Luca Regis, 2017. "Basis risk in static versus dynamic longevity-risk hedging," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2017(4), pages 343-365, April.
    12. Hallin, Marc & van den Akker, Ramon & Werker, Bas J.M., 2016. "Semiparametric error-correction models for cointegration with trends: Pseudo-Gaussian and optimal rank-based tests of the cointegration rank," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 46-61.
    13. Wang, Ling & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2021. "Time-consistent longevity hedging with long-range dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 25-41.
    14. Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillén & Jorge M. Uribe, 2015. "Mortality and Longevity Risks in the United Kingdom: Dynamic Factor Models and Copula-Functions," Working Papers 2015-03, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
    15. Zhang, Jingong & Tan, Ken Seng & Weng, Chengguo, 2017. "Optimal hedging with basis risk under mean–variance criterion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Bosserhoff, Frank & Stadje, Mitja, 2021. "Time-consistent mean-variance investment with unit linked life insurance contracts in a jump-diffusion setting," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 130-146.

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