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Survivor Derivatives: A Consistent Pricing Framework

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  • Paul Dawson
  • Kevin Dowd
  • Andrew J. G. Cairns
  • David Blake

Abstract

Survivorship risk is a significant factor in the provision of retirement income. Survivor derivatives are in their early stages and offer potentially significant welfare benefits to society. This article applies the approach developed by Dowd et al. (2006), Olivier and Jeffery (2004), Smith (2005), and Cairns (2007) to derive a consistent framework for pricing a wide range of linear survivor derivatives, such as forwards, basis swaps, forward swaps, and futures. It then shows how a recent option pricing model set out by Dawson et al. (2009) can be used to price nonlinear survivor derivatives, such as survivor swaptions, caps, floors, and combined option products. It concludes by considering applications of these products to a pension fund that wishes to hedge its survivorship risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Dawson & Kevin Dowd & Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake, 2010. "Survivor Derivatives: A Consistent Pricing Framework," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 579-596, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:77:y:2010:i:3:p:579-596
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2010.01356.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Paul Dawson & Kevin Dowd & Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake, 2009. "Options on normal underlyings with an application to the pricing of survivor swaptions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(8), pages 757-774, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. H. Huang & M. A. Milevsky & T. S. Salisbury, 2014. "Valuation and Hedging of the Ruin-Contingent Life Annuity (RCLA)," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(2), pages 367-395, June.
    2. Narat Charupat & Mark J. Kamstra & Moshe A. Milevsky, 2016. "The Sluggish and Asymmetric Reaction of Life Annuity Prices to Changes in Interest Rates," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(3), pages 519-555, September.
    3. Wang, Chou-Wen & Yang, Sharon S. & Huang, Hong-Chih, 2015. "Modeling multi-country mortality dependence and its application in pricing survivor index swaps—A dynamic copula approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 30-39.
    4. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    5. David Blake & Marco Morales & Enrico Biffis & Yijia Lin & Andreas Milidonis, 2017. "Special Edition: Longevity 10 – The Tenth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(S1), pages 515-532, April.
    6. David Blake & Christophe Courbage & Richard MacMinn & Michael Sherris, 2011. "Longevity Risk and Capital Markets: The 2010–2011 Update," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 36(4), pages 489-500, October.
    7. Wong, Tat Wing & Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2014. "Time-consistent mean–variance hedging of longevity risk: Effect of cointegration," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 56-67.
    8. Boyer, M. Martin & Stentoft, Lars, 2013. "If we can simulate it, we can insure it: An application to longevity risk management," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 35-45.
    9. Blake, David & Brockett, Patrick & Cox, Samuel & MacMinn, Richard, 2011. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2009-2010 update," MPRA Paper 28868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Yang, Sharon S. & Wang, Chou-Wen, 2013. "Pricing and securitization of multi-country longevity risk with mortality dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 157-169.
    11. Bravo, Jorge Miguel & El Mekkaoui de Freitas, Najat, 2018. "Valuation of longevity-linked life annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 212-229.
    12. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    13. Chen, Ze & Feng, Runhuan & Li, Hong & Yang, Tianyu, 2024. "Coping with longevity via hedging: Fair dynamic valuation of variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 154-169.
    14. Chou-Wen Wang & Hong-Chih Huang & I-Chien Liu, 2013. "Mortality Modeling With Non-Gaussian Innovations and Applications to the Valuation of Longevity Swaps," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 775-798, September.
    15. Arık, Ayşe & Uğur, Ömür & Kleinow, Torsten, 2023. "The impact of simultaneous shocks to financial markets and mortality on pension buy-out prices," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 392-417, May.
    16. Bravo, Jorge M. & Nunes, João Pedro Vidal, 2021. "Pricing longevity derivatives via Fourier transforms," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-97.
    17. Chen, An & Li, Hong & Schultze, Mark B., 2023. "Optimal longevity risk transfer under asymmetric information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Chou-Wen Wang & Sharon S. Yang, 2013. "Pricing Survivor Derivatives With Cohort Mortality Dependence Under the Lee–Carter Framework," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(4), pages 1027-1056, December.
    19. David Blake & Andrew Cairns & Guy Coughlan & Kevin Dowd & Richard MacMinn, 2013. "The New Life Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(3), pages 501-558, September.
    20. Kung, Ko-Lun & Liu, I-Chien & Wang, Chou-Wen, 2021. "Modeling and pricing longevity derivatives using Skellam distribution," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 341-354.
    21. Tat Wing Wong & Mei Choi Chiu & Hoi Ying Wong, 2017. "Managing Mortality Risk With Longevity Bonds When Mortality Rates Are Cointegrated," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(3), pages 987-1023, September.
    22. Chen, An & Li, Hong & Schultze, Mark, 2022. "Collective longevity swap: A novel longevity risk transfer solution and its economic pricing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 227-249.

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