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Estimating generalized state density of near-extreme events and its applications in analyzing stock data

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  • Lin, Jin-Guan
  • Huang, Chao
  • Zhuang, Qing-Yun
  • Zhu, Li-Ping

Abstract

This paper studies the generalized state density (GDOS) of near-historical extreme events of a set of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. The generalized density of states is proposed which is defined as a probability density function (p.d.f.). For the underlying distribution in the domain of attraction of the three well-known extreme value distribution families, we show the approximate form of the mean GDOS. Estimates of the mean GDOS are presented when the underlying distribution is unknown and the sample size is sufficiently large. Some simulations have been performed, which are found to agree with the theoretical results. The closing price data of the Dow-Jones industrial index are used to illustrate the obtained results.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Jin-Guan & Huang, Chao & Zhuang, Qing-Yun & Zhu, Li-Ping, 2010. "Estimating generalized state density of near-extreme events and its applications in analyzing stock data," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 13-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:47:y:2010:i:1:p:13-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brands, J. J. A. M. & Steutel, F. W. & Wilms, R. J. G., 1994. "On the number of maxima in a discrete sample," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 209-217, June.
    2. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
    3. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Ulugulyagci, Abdurrahman, 2003. "High volatility, thick tails and extreme value theory in value-at-risk estimation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 337-356, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Politi, Mauro & Millot, Nicolas & Chakraborti, Anirban, 2012. "The near-extreme density of intraday log-returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(1), pages 147-155.
    2. Wang, Hai-Kun & Li, Yan-Feng & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Jin, Tongdan, 2017. "Near-extreme system condition and near-extreme remaining useful time for a group of products," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 103-110.
    3. Chao Huang & Jin-Guan Lin & Yan-Yan Ren, 2013. "Testing for the shape parameter of generalized extreme value distribution based on the $$L_q$$ -likelihood ratio statistic," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 76(5), pages 641-671, July.
    4. Mauro Politi & Nicolas Millot & Anirban Chakraborti, 2011. "The near-extreme density of intraday log-returns," Papers 1106.0039, arXiv.org.
    5. Chao Huang & Jin-Guan Lin, 2014. "Modified maximum spacings method for generalized extreme value distribution and applications in real data analysis," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 77(7), pages 867-894, October.
    6. Mauro Politi & Nicolas Millot & Anirban Chakraborti, 2011. "The near-extreme density of intraday log-returns," Post-Print hal-00827942, HAL.

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