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Intraday risk management in International stock markets: A conditional EVT approach

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  • Karmakar, Madhusudan
  • Paul, Samit

Abstract

The study compares the predictive ability of various models in estimating intraday Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) using high frequency share price index data from sixteen different countries across the world for a period of seven and half months from September 20, 2013 to May 07, 2014. The main emphasis of the study has been given to Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and to evaluate how well Conditional EVT model performs in modeling tails of distributions and in estimating and forecasting intraday VaR and ES measures. We have followed McNeil and Frey's (2000) two stage approach called Conditional EVT to estimate dynamic intraday VaR and ES. We have compared the accuracy of Conditional EVT approach to intraday VaR and ES estimation with other competing models. The best performing model is found to be the Conditional EVT in estimating both the quantiles for the entire sample. The study is useful for market participants (such as intraday traders and market makers) involved in frequent intraday trading in such equity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Karmakar, Madhusudan & Paul, Samit, 2016. "Intraday risk management in International stock markets: A conditional EVT approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 34-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:44:y:2016:i:c:p:34-55
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2015.11.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Samit Paul & Madhusudan Karmakar, 2017. "Relative Efficiency of Component GARCH-EVT Approach in Managing Intraday Market Risk," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 21(4), pages 247-283, December.
    2. Wilson Calmon & Eduardo Ferioli & Davi Lettieri & Johann Soares & Adrian Pizzinga, 2021. "An Extensive Comparison of Some Well‐Established Value at Risk Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(1), pages 148-166, April.
    3. Aditya Banerjee & Samit Paul, 2024. "Idiosyncrasies of Intraday Risk in Emerging and Developed Markets: Efficacy of the MCS-GARCH Model and Extreme Value Theory," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 25(2), pages 468-490, April.
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    5. Wang, Keli & Liu, Xiaoquan & Ye, Wuyi, 2023. "Intraday VaR: A copula-based approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Po Yun & Chen Zhang & Yaqi Wu & Xianzi Yang & Zulfiqar Ali Wagan, 2020. "A Novel Extended Higher-Order Moment Multi-Factor Framework for Forecasting the Carbon Price: Testing on the Multilayer Long Short-Term Memory Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-16, March.
    7. Ikhlaas Gurrib & Firuz Kamalov & Elgilani E. Alshareif, 2022. "High Frequency Return and Risk Patterns in U.S. Sector ETFs during COVID-19," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 441-456, September.
    8. Harish Kamal & Samit Paul, 2024. "Liquidity‐adjusted value‐at‐risk using extreme value theory and copula approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1747-1769, September.
    9. Bangzhu Zhu & Shunxin Ye & Kaijian He & Julien Chevallier & Rui Xie, 2019. "Measuring the risk of European carbon market: an empirical mode decomposition-based value at risk approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 373-395, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value-at-risk; Peak over threshold method; Conditional EVT; Deseasonalized returns; High frequency data; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G - Financial Economics
    • G - Financial Economics

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