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Forecasting age distribution of death counts: an application to annuity pricing

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  • Shang, Han Lin
  • Haberman, Steven

Abstract

We consider a compositional data analysis approach to forecasting the age distribution of death counts. Using the age-specific period life-table death counts in Australia obtained from the Human Mortality Database, the compositional data analysis approach produces more accurate 1- to 20-step-ahead point and interval forecasts than Lee–Carter method, Hyndman–Ullah method and two naïve random walk methods. The improved forecast accuracy of period life-table death counts is of great interest to demographers for estimating survival probabilities and life expectancy, and to actuaries for determining temporary annuity prices for various ages and maturities. Although we focus on temporary annuity prices, we consider long-term contracts that make the annuity almost lifetime, in particular when the age at entry is sufficiently high.

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  • Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven, 2020. "Forecasting age distribution of death counts: an application to annuity pricing," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 150-169, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:anacsi:v:14:y:2020:i:1:p:150-169_9
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    Cited by:

    1. Catalina Bolancé & Montserrat Guillen, 2021. "Nonparametric Estimation of Extreme Quantiles with an Application to Longevity Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Ainhoa-Elena Léger & Stefano Mazzuco, 2021. "What Can We Learn from the Functional Clustering of Mortality Data? An Application to the Human Mortality Database," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 769-798, November.
    4. Chao Zhang & Piotr Kokoszka & Alexander Petersen, 2022. "Wasserstein autoregressive models for density time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 30-52, January.
    5. Shang, Han Lin & Haberman, Steven & Xu, Ruofan, 2022. "Multi-population modelling and forecasting life-table death counts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 239-253.
    6. Ana Debón & Steven Haberman & Francisco Montes & Edoardo Otranto, 2021. "Do Different Models Induce Changes in Mortality Indicators? That Is a Key Question for Extending the Lee-Carter Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-16, February.

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