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International reserves and central bank independence

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  • Samano, Agustin

Abstract

Motivated by a positive correlation between reserve accumulation and the widespread adoption of central bank independence legislation in Latin America, this paper develops a sovereign default model with an independent central bank that can accumulate a risk-free foreign asset. I show that if the central bank is more patient than the government and as patient as households are, in equilibrium, the government issues more debt than what is socially optimal, and the central bank accumulates reserves to undo government over-borrowing. A key insight is that the government can issue more debt for any level of reserves but chooses not to because doing so would increase spreads, making it more costly to borrow. Quantitatively, I find that the lack of perfect coordination between the central bank and the government can rationalize levels of reserves and debt close to the observed levels in emerging economies.

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  • Samano, Agustin, 2022. "International reserves and central bank independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:139:y:2022:i:c:s0022199622001064
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103674
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    Cited by:

    1. Sosa-Padilla, César & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2023. "Does it matter how central banks accumulate reserves? Evidence from sovereign spreads," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Maeng, F. S., 2024. "Default, Inflation Expectations, and the Currency Denomination of Sovereign Bonds," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2438, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Javier Bianchi & Guido Lorenzoni, 2021. "The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves," NBER Working Papers 29476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Conesa, Juan Carlos & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2024. "Preemptive austerity with rollover risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International reserves; Central bank independence; Sovereign debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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