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A system dynamics approach for assessing the impact of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures

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  • Genge, Béla
  • Kiss, István
  • Haller, Piroska

Abstract

The massive proliferation of information and communications technologies (hardware and software) into the heart of modern critical infrastructures has given birth to a unique technological ecosystem. Despite the many advantages brought about by modern information and communications technologies, the shift from isolated environments to “systems-of-systems” integrated with massive information and communications infrastructures (e.g., the Internet) exposes critical infrastructures to significant cyber threats. Therefore, it is imperative to develop approaches for identifying and ranking assets in complex, large-scale and heterogeneous critical infrastructures. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures. The methodology is inspired by research in system dynamics and sensitivity analysis. The proposed behavioral analysis methodology computes the covariances of the observed variables before and after the execution of a specific intervention involving the control variables. Metrics are proposed for quantifying the significance of control variables and measuring the impact propagation of cyber attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Genge, Béla & Kiss, István & Haller, Piroska, 2015. "A system dynamics approach for assessing the impact of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 3-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ijocip:v:10:y:2015:i:c:p:3-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcip.2015.04.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Baraldi, Piero & Castellano, Andrea & Shokry, Ahmed & Gentile, Ugo & Serio, Luigi & Zio, Enrico, 2020. "A Feature Selection-based Approach for the Identification of Critical Components in Complex Technical Infrastructures: Application to the CERN Large Hadron Collider," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
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    7. Galbraith, John W. & Iuliani, Luca, 2019. "Measures of robustness for networked critical infrastructure: An empirical comparison on four electrical grids," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
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    10. Adrian-Silviu Roman, 2023. "Evaluating the Privacy and Utility of Time-Series Data Perturbation Algorithms," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, March.
    11. A. Sardi & E. Sorano, 2021. "Dynamic Performance Management: An Approach for Managing the Common Goods," Papers 2102.04090, arXiv.org.
    12. Palleti, Venkata Reddy & Joseph, Jude Victor & Silva, Arlindo, 2018. "A contribution of axiomatic design principles to the analysis and impact of attacks on critical infrastructures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 21-32.
    13. Alberto Sardi & Enrico Sorano, 2019. "Dynamic Performance Management: An Approach for Managing the Common Goods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-22, November.
    14. Ahmed Shokry & Piero Baraldi & Andrea Castellano & Luigi Serio & Enrico Zio, 2021. "Identification of Critical Components in the Complex Technical Infrastructure of the Large Hadron Collider Using Relief Feature Ranking and Support Vector Machines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-19, September.
    15. Bhandari, Pratik & Creighton, Douglas & Gong, Jinzhe & Boyle, Carol & Law, Kris M.Y., 2023. "Evolution of cyber-physical-human water systems: Challenges and gaps," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    16. Michał Syfert & Andrzej Ordys & Jan Maciej Kościelny & Paweł Wnuk & Jakub Możaryn & Krzysztof Kukiełka, 2022. "Integrated Approach to Diagnostics of Failures and Cyber-Attacks in Industrial Control Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-24, August.
    17. Stephan Berger & Christopher Dun & Björn Häckel, 2024. "IT Availability Risks in Smart Factory Networks – Analyzing the Effects of IT Threats on Production Processes Using Petri Nets," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1633-1652, October.
    18. Leszczyna, Rafał, 2018. "Standards on cyber security assessment of smart grid," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-89.

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