IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v191y2019ics0951832018315163.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic decision-support framework for community resilience: Incorporating multi-hazards, infrastructure interdependencies, and resilience goals in a Bayesian network

Author

Listed:
  • Kameshwar, Sabarethinam
  • Cox, Daniel T.
  • Barbosa, Andre R.
  • Farokhnia, Karim
  • Park, Hyoungsu
  • Alam, Mohammad S.
  • van de Lindt, John W.

Abstract

A probabilistic decision support framework is developed in this study for community resilience planning under multiple hazards using performance goals based guidelines such as the Oregon Resilience Plan and the National Institute of Standards and Technology Community Resilience Planning Guide. Herein, resilience of community infrastructure systems is defined as the joint probability of achieving robustness and rapidity based performance goals, which is quantified using Bayesian networks. The framework assesses the effects of decision support options such as selection of hazards, resilience goals, and mitigation (ex-ante) and response (ex-post) strategies to identify measures that can improve infrastructure performance to meet community defined resilience goals. This framework is applied for resilience assessment of building, transportation, water, and electric power infrastructure systems in Seaside, Oregon, under combined earthquake ground shaking and tsunami inundation hazards corresponding to different return periods. Uncertainties in damage, restoration, and economic losses are explicitly considered and propagated in the framework using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The MCS results are then used to inform the Bayesian network, which evaluates the joint resilience of infrastructure systems in Seaside. Results highlight the impact of considering different performance goals, introduction of ex-ante and ex-post measures, and interdependencies between various infrastructure systems on infrastructure resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Kameshwar, Sabarethinam & Cox, Daniel T. & Barbosa, Andre R. & Farokhnia, Karim & Park, Hyoungsu & Alam, Mohammad S. & van de Lindt, John W., 2019. "Probabilistic decision-support framework for community resilience: Incorporating multi-hazards, infrastructure interdependencies, and resilience goals in a Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:191:y:2019:i:c:s0951832018315163
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106568
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832018315163
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106568?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ouyang, Min & Wang, Zhenghua, 2015. "Resilience assessment of interdependent infrastructure systems: With a focus on joint restoration modeling and analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 74-82.
    2. Shafieezadeh, Abdollah & Ivey Burden, Lindsay, 2014. "Scenario-based resilience assessment framework for critical infrastructure systems: Case study for seismic resilience of seaports," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 207-219.
    3. Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E., 2016. "A review of definitions and measures of system resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 47-61.
    4. Stephanie E. Chang & Timothy McDaniels & Jana Fox & Rajan Dhariwal & Holly Longstaff, 2014. "Toward Disaster‐Resilient Cities: Characterizing Resilience of Infrastructure Systems with Expert Judgments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, March.
    5. Nan, Cen & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2017. "A quantitative method for assessing resilience of interdependent infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 35-53.
    6. Johansson, Jonas & Hassel, Henrik, 2010. "An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(12), pages 1335-1344.
    7. Eric D. Vugrin & R. Chris Camphouse, 2011. "Infrastructure resilience assessment through control design," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(3), pages 243-260.
    8. Alireza Mostafizi & Haizhong Wang & Dan Cox & Lori A. Cramer & Shangjia Dong, 2017. "Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1347-1372, September.
    9. Filippini, Roberto & Silva, Andrés, 2014. "A modeling framework for the resilience analysis of networked systems-of-systems based on functional dependencies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 82-91.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hoang Long Nguyen & Rajendra Akerkar, 2020. "Modelling, Measuring, and Visualising Community Resilience: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-26, September.
    2. Stefan Greiving & Mark Fleischhauer & Christian D. León & Leonie Schödl & Gisela Wachinger & Iris Katherine Quintana Miralles & Benjamín Prado Larraín, 2021. "Participatory Assessment of Multi Risks in Urban Regions—The Case of Critical Infrastructures in Metropolitan Lima," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Mujjuni, F. & Betts, T. & To, L.S. & Blanchard, R.E., 2021. "Resilience a means to development: A resilience assessment framework and a catalogue of indicators," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Dylan Sanderson & Sabarethinam Kameshwar & Nathanael Rosenheim & Daniel Cox, 2021. "Deaggregation of multi-hazard damages, losses, risks, and connectivity: an application to the joint seismic-tsunami hazard at Seaside, Oregon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1821-1847, November.
    5. Yang, Sen & Zhang, Yi & Lu, Xinzheng & Guo, Wei & Miao, Huiquan, 2024. "Multi-agent deep reinforcement learning based decision support model for resilient community post-hazard recovery," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    6. Ferrario, E. & Poulos, A. & Castro, S. & de la Llera, J.C. & Lorca, A., 2022. "Predictive capacity of topological measures in evaluating seismic risk and resilience of electric power networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    7. Guohua Chen & Qin Yang & Xuexi Chen & Kongxing Huang & Tao Zeng & Zhi Yuan, 2021. "Methodology of Urban Safety and Security Assessment Based on the Overall Risk Management Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-26, June.
    8. Ghazanfar Ali Anwar & Mudasir Hussain & Muhammad Zeshan Akber & Mustesin Ali Khan & Aatif Ali Khan, 2023. "Sustainability-Oriented Optimization and Decision Making of Community Buildings under Seismic Hazard," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.
    9. Pawel Gromek & Grzegorz Sobolewski, 2020. "Risk-Based Approach for Informing Sustainable Infrastructure Resilience Enhancement and Potential Resilience Implication in Terms of Emergency Service Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-30, June.
    10. Maddah, Negin & Heydari, Babak, 2024. "Building back better: Modeling decentralized recovery in sociotechnical systems using strategic network dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    11. Geng, Sunyue & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2022. "A demand-based framework for resilience assessment of multistate networks under disruptions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    12. Di Maio, F. & Belotti, M. & Volpe, M. & Selva, J. & Zio, E., 2022. "Parallel density scanned adaptive Kriging to improve local tsunami hazard assessment for coastal infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    13. Xu, Zizhen & Chopra, Shauhrat S., 2022. "Network-based Assessment of Metro Infrastructure with a Spatial–temporal Resilience Cycle Framework," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    14. Goerlandt, Floris & Islam, Samsul, 2021. "A Bayesian Network risk model for estimating coastal maritime transportation delays following an earthquake in British Columbia," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    15. Å arÅ«nienÄ—, Inga & MartiÅ¡auskas, Linas & KrikÅ¡tolaitis, RiÄ ardas & Augutis, Juozas & Setola, Roberto, 2024. "Risk assessment of critical infrastructures: A methodology based on criticality of infrastructure elements," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    16. Du, Ao & Wang, Xiaowei & Xie, Yazhou & Dong, You, 2023. "Regional seismic risk and resilience assessment: Methodological development, applicability, and future research needs – An earthquake engineering perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Poulin, Craig & Kane, Michael B., 2021. "Infrastructure resilience curves: Performance measures and summary metrics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Jingjing Kong & Slobodan P. Simonovic & Chao Zhang, 2019. "Resilience Assessment of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems: A Case Study Based on Different Response Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-31, November.
    3. Jingjing Kong & Slobodan P. Simonovic, 2019. "Probabilistic Multiple Hazard Resilience Model of an Interdependent Infrastructure System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1843-1863, August.
    4. Das, Laya & Munikoti, Sai & Natarajan, Balasubramaniam & Srinivasan, Babji, 2020. "Measuring smart grid resilience: Methods, challenges and opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Cassottana, Beatrice & Shen, Lijuan & Tang, Loon Ching, 2019. "Modeling the recovery process: A key dimension of resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Caputo, Antonio C. & Kalemi, Bledar & Paolacci, Fabrizio & Corritore, Daniele, 2020. "Computing resilience of process plants under Na-Tech events: Methodology and application to sesmic loading scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    7. Adel Mottahedi & Farhang Sereshki & Mohammad Ataei & Ali Nouri Qarahasanlou & Abbas Barabadi, 2021. "The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-32, March.
    8. Trucco, Paolo & Petrenj, Boris, 2023. "Characterisation of resilience metrics in full-scale applications to interdependent infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    9. Zou, Qiling & Chen, Suren, 2019. "Enhancing resilience of interdependent traffic-electric power system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    10. Maddah, Negin & Heydari, Babak, 2024. "Building back better: Modeling decentralized recovery in sociotechnical systems using strategic network dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    11. Yifan Yang & S. Thomas Ng & Frank J. Xu & Martin Skitmore & Shenghua Zhou, 2019. "Towards Resilient Civil Infrastructure Asset Management: An Information Elicitation and Analytical Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-24, August.
    12. Pitilakis, Kyriazis & Argyroudis, Sotiris & Fotopoulou, Stavroula & Karafagka, Stella & Kakderi, Kalliopi & Selva, Jacopo, 2019. "Application of stress test concepts for port infrastructures against natural hazards. The case of Thessaloniki port in Greece," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 240-257.
    13. Mottahedi, Adel & Sereshki, Farhang & Ataei, Mohammad & Qarahasanlou, Ali Nouri & Barabadi, Abbas, 2021. "Resilience estimation of critical infrastructure systems: Application of expert judgment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    14. Shuai Lin & Limin Jia & Hengrun Zhang & Yanhui Wang, 2021. "A method for assessing resilience of high-speed EMUs considering a network-based system topology and performance data," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 235(5), pages 877-895, October.
    15. Wu, Jingyi & Yu, Yang & Yu, Jianxing & Chang, Xueying & Xu, Lixin & Zhang, Wenhao, 2023. "A Markov resilience assessment framework for tension leg platform under mooring failure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    16. Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E., 2016. "A review of definitions and measures of system resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 47-61.
    17. Cai, Baoping & Xie, Min & Liu, Yonghong & Liu, Yiliu & Feng, Qiang, 2018. "Availability-based engineering resilience metric and its corresponding evaluation methodology," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 216-224.
    18. Caputo, A.C. & Donati, L. & Salini, P., 2023. "Estimating resilience of manufacturing plants to physical disruptions: Model and application," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    19. Hossain, Niamat Ullah Ibne & Nur, Farjana & Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Jaradat, Raed & Marufuzzaman, Mohammad & Puryear, Stephen M., 2019. "A Bayesian network based approach for modeling and assessing resilience: A case study of a full service deep water port," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 378-396.
    20. Tiong, Achara & Vergara, Hector A., 2023. "Evaluation of network expansion decisions for resilient interdependent critical infrastructures with different topologies," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:191:y:2019:i:c:s0951832018315163. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.