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Forest Landscape Development Scenarios (FoLDS)–A framework for integrating forest models, owners' behaviour and socio-economic developments

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  • Hengeveld, Geerten M.
  • Schüll, Elmar
  • Trubins, Renats
  • Sallnäs, Ola

Abstract

The FoLDS framework presented in this paper is set up to develop scenarios for forested landscapes with a transparent connection between the broad-scale developments in socio-economic factors and the ecosystem services provided. The forests that provide these ecosystem services are managed by a multitude of forest owners. Different forest owners have their own objectives and will thus adjust their forest management differently to socio-economic developments. The FoLDS framework breaks down the connection from socio-economic developments to the landscape level in three steps. In the first step, a structure is provided for deciding on scenarios combining the socio-economic factors that have most influence on forest owners. In the second step, the scenarios are translated to the distribution of forest management approaches in the landscape by invoking a behavioural matrix of forest owner types and forest management decisions. The third step involves the implementation of these forest management approaches in a forest modelling tool that is tailored to the specific landscape at hand. The results of these calculations are then translated to a set of indicators for the ecosystem services of interest. A survey among researchers experienced with the FoLDS framework indicates that there is an added value in systematically including both qualitative and quantitative scenario methods for forested landscapes.

Suggested Citation

  • Hengeveld, Geerten M. & Schüll, Elmar & Trubins, Renats & Sallnäs, Ola, 2017. "Forest Landscape Development Scenarios (FoLDS)–A framework for integrating forest models, owners' behaviour and socio-economic developments," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P2), pages 245-255.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:85:y:2017:i:p2:p:245-255
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2017.03.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hoogstra-Klein, Marjanke A. & Hengeveld, Geerten M. & de Jong, Rutger, 2017. "Analysing scenario approaches for forest management — One decade of experiences in Europe," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P2), pages 222-234.
    2. Solberg, Birger & Moiseyev, Alexander & Kallio, A. Maarit I., 2003. "Economic impacts of accelerating forest growth in Europe," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 157-171, July.
    3. Carlsson, Julia & Eriksson, Ljusk Ola & Öhman, Karin & Nordström, Eva-Maria, 2015. "Combining scientific and stakeholder knowledge in future scenario development — A forest landscape case study in northern Sweden," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 122-134.
    4. Hurmekoski, Elias & Hetemäki, Lauri, 2013. "Studying the future of the forest sector: Review and implications for long-term outlook studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-29.
    5. Yousefpour, Rasoul & Didion, Markus & Jacobsen, Jette B. & Meilby, Henrik & Hengeveld, Geerten M. & Schelhaas, Mart-Jan & Thorsen, Bo J., 2015. "Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-10.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mozgeris, Gintautas & Kavaliauskas, Marius & Brukas, Vilis & Stanislovaitis, Andrius, 2019. "Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 36-44.
    3. Trubins, Renats & Jonsson, Ragnar & Wallin, Ida & Sallnäs, Ola, 2019. "Explicating behavioral assumptions in forest scenario modelling – the behavioral matrix approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 70-78.
    4. Lodin, Isak & Brukas, Vilis, 2021. "Ideal vs real forest management: Challenges in promoting production-oriented silvicultural ideals among small-scale forest owners in southern Sweden," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Heiskanen, Aleksi & Hurmekoski, Elias & Toppinen, Anne & Näyhä, Annukka, 2022. "Exploring the unknowns – State of the art in qualitative forest-based sector foresight research," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

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