IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v132y2021ics1389934121001945.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Material substitution between coniferous, non-coniferous and recycled biomass – Impacts on forest industry raw material use and regional competitiveness

Author

Listed:
  • Lauri, Pekka
  • Forsell, Nicklas
  • Di Fulvio, Fulvio
  • Snäll, Tord
  • Havlik, Petr

Abstract

The competitive advantage of traditional forest industry regions such as North America, Russia and the EU is based largely on the production and processing of coniferous (C) biomass. However, non-coniferous (NC) and recycled (R) biomass provide cost-effective alternatives to C biomass, which have already decreased the proportion of C biomass use and which can potentially have large impacts on the future development of the global forest sector. In this study, we investigate the impacts of material substitution between C, NC and R biomass on forest industry raw material use and regional competitiveness from 2020 to 2100. The analysis is based on a global spatially-explicit forest sector model (GLOBIOM-forest). Our results indicate that traditional forest industry regions can maintain their competitiveness in a baseline scenario where C and NC biomass remain imperfect substitutes, and the development of the circular economy increases the availability of R biomass. Limited availability of R biomass would increase the competitiveness of traditional forest industry regions relative to the baseline. On the other hand, a perfect substitution between C and NC biomass would decrease the competitiveness of traditional forest industry regions relative to the baseline, and increase the competitiveness of emerging forest industry regions such as South America, Asia and Africa. We also show that the increased availability of R biomass tends to decrease demand for pulpwood and might lead to an oversupply of pulpwood especially in traditional forest industry regions. This opens new perspectives for pulpwood use and/or forest management in these regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauri, Pekka & Forsell, Nicklas & Di Fulvio, Fulvio & Snäll, Tord & Havlik, Petr, 2021. "Material substitution between coniferous, non-coniferous and recycled biomass – Impacts on forest industry raw material use and regional competitiveness," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:132:y:2021:i:c:s1389934121001945
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102588
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934121001945
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102588?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Latta, Gregory S. & Sjølie, Hanne K. & Solberg, Birger, 2013. "A review of recent developments and applications of partial equilibrium models of the forest sector," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 350-360.
    2. Morland, Christian & Schier, Franziska & Janzen, Niels & Weimar, Holger, 2018. "Supply and demand functions for global wood markets: Specification and plausibility testing of econometric models within the global forest sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 92-105.
    3. Schwaiger, Fabian & Poschenrieder, Werner & Biber, Peter & Pretzsch, Hans, 2019. "Ecosystem service trade-offs for adaptive forest management," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    4. Lauri, Pekka & Forsell, Nicklas & Gusti, Mykola & Havlík, Petr & Obersteiner, Michael, 2019. "Global Woody Biomass Harvest Volumes and Forest Area Use Under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios," Journal of Forest Economics, now publishers, vol. 34(3-4), pages 285-309, November.
    5. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Johnston, Craig M.T., 2016. "Global paper market forecasts to 2030 under future internet demand scenarios," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 14-28.
    7. Jochem, Dominik & Bösch, Matthias & Weimar, Holger & Dieter, Matthias, 2021. "National wood fiber balances for the pulp and paper sector: An approach to supplement international forest products statistics," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Hurmekoski, Elias & Hetemäki, Lauri, 2013. "Studying the future of the forest sector: Review and implications for long-term outlook studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-29.
    9. Lauri, Pekka & Havlík, Petr & Kindermann, Georg & Forsell, Nicklas & Böttcher, Hannes & Obersteiner, Michael, 2014. "Woody biomass energy potential in 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 19-31.
    10. Schier, Franziska & Morland, Christian & Dieter, Matthias & Weimar, Holger, 2021. "Estimating supply and demand elasticities of dissolving pulp, lignocellulose-based chemical derivatives and textile fibres in an emerging forest-based bioeconomy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla, 2020. "Representations of the Forest Sector in Economic Models [Les représentations du secteur forestier dans les modèles économiques]," Post-Print hal-03088084, HAL.
    12. Ramage, Michael H. & Burridge, Henry & Busse-Wicher, Marta & Fereday, George & Reynolds, Thomas & Shah, Darshil U. & Wu, Guanglu & Yu, Li & Fleming, Patrick & Densley-Tingley, Danielle & Allwood, Juli, 2017. "The wood from the trees: The use of timber in construction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 333-359.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vergarechea, M. & Astrup, R. & Fischer, C. & Øistad, K. & Blattert, C. & Hartikainen, M. & Eyvindson, K. & Di Fulvio, F. & Forsell, N. & Burgas, D. & Toraño-Caicoya, A. & Mönkkönen, M. & Antón-Fernánd, 2023. "Future wood demands and ecosystem services trade-offs: A policy analysis in Norway," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hurmekoski, Elias & Sjølie, Hanne K., 2018. "Comparing forest sector modelling and qualitative foresight analysis: Cases on wood products industry," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 11-16.
    2. Daigneault, Adam & Baker, Justin S. & Guo, Jinggang & Lauri, Pekka & Favero, Alice & Forsell, Nicklas & Johnston, Craig & Ohrel, Sara & Sohngen, Brent, 2021. "How the Future of the Global Forest Sink Depends on Timber Demand, Forest Management, and Carbon Prices," CEnREP Working Papers 340059, North Carolina State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    3. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla, 2020. "Representations of the Forest Sector in Economic Models [Les représentations du secteur forestier dans les modèles économiques]," Post-Print hal-03088084, HAL.
    4. Mariana Hassegawa & Jo Van Brusselen & Mathias Cramm & Pieter Johannes Verkerk, 2022. "Wood-Based Products in the Circular Bioeconomy: Status and Opportunities towards Environmental Sustainability," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Satu Lipiäinen & Esa Vakkilainen, 2021. "Role of the Finnish forest industry in mitigating global change: energy use and greenhouse gas emissions towards 2035," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Miguel RIVIERE & Sylvain CAURLA, 2018. "Integrating non-timber objectives into bio-economic models of the forest sector: a review of recent innovations and current shortcomings," Working Papers of BETA 2018-26, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    7. Miguel Riviere & Sylvain Caurla & Philippe Delacote, 2020. "Evolving Integrated Models From Narrower Economic Tools : the Example of Forest Sector Models," Post-Print hal-02512330, HAL.
    8. Lochhead, Kyle & Ghafghazi, Saeed & Havlik, Petr & Forsell, Nicklas & Obersteiner, Michael & Bull, Gary & Mabee, Warren, 2016. "Price trends and volatility scenarios for designing forest sector transformation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 184-191.
    9. Mathieu, Valentin & Roda, Jean-Marc, 2023. "A meta-analysis on wood trade flow modeling concepts," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Mager, Elena & Iurato, Chiara & Schanz, Heiner, 2023. "Depicting wood-based sectors to inform policymaking: A structural modeling approach centering on networks of markets," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    11. Hurmekoski, Elias & Lovrić, Marko & Lovrić, Nataša & Hetemäki, Lauri & Winkel, Georg, 2019. "Frontiers of the forest-based bioeconomy – A European Delphi study," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 86-99.
    12. Shen, Xinran & Lovrić, Marko, 2022. "Structural determinants of global trade in graphic paper and pulp products," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    13. Jarreau, Joachim & Poncet, Sandra, 2012. "Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 281-292.
    14. Yu Dong & Tongyu Qin & Siyuan Zhou & Lu Huang & Rui Bo & Haibo Guo & Xunzhi Yin, 2020. "Comparative Whole Building Life Cycle Assessment of Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Performance of Reinforced Concrete and Timber Stadiums—A Case Study in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-24, February.
    15. Etienne Lorang & Antonello Lobianco & Philippe Delacote, 2023. "Increasing Paper and Cardboard Recycling: Impacts on the Forest Sector and Carbon Emissions," Post-Print hal-04690101, HAL.
    16. Gideon Ndubuisi & Solomon Owusu, 2021. "How important is GVC participation to export upgrading?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 2887-2908, October.
    17. Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra & Ameztegui, Aitor & De Cáceres, Miquel & de-Miguel, Sergio & Lefèvre, François & Brotons, Lluís & Coll, Lluís, 2020. "Future trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests under global change scenarios," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    18. Sonali Chowdhry & Julian Hinz & Katrin Kamin & Joschka Wanner, 2024. "Brothers in arms: the value of coalitions in sanctions regimes," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(118), pages 471-512.
    19. Lionel Fontagné & Sophie Hatte, 2013. "European High-End Products in International Competition," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS hal-00959394, HAL.
    20. Erbahar, Aksel & Rebeyrol, Vincent, 2023. "Trade intermediation by producers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:132:y:2021:i:c:s1389934121001945. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.