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Explicating behavioral assumptions in forest scenario modelling – the behavioral matrix approach

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  • Trubins, Renats
  • Jonsson, Ragnar
  • Wallin, Ida
  • Sallnäs, Ola

Abstract

Forest landscapes are too complex systems for the actors involved in policy making, including experts, to predict the consequences of different management options and policy measures without the aid of modelling tools. Forest sector models and forest management Decision Support Systems (DSS) are two major types of modelling tools that can be used for providing model-based support to forest policy development. Regardless of the modelling tool, policy makers and other concerned actors need to be aware of the behavioral assumptions, or implications, of a scenario in order to proceed to an assessment of what it takes to achieve, alternatively avoid it. A unified method or even a unified understanding of this problem is as yet lacking among forest scenario analysts. This paper presents an approach to facilitate the definition and communication of behavioral assumptions, primarily in DSS-based forest scenario modelling. At the core of the approach is the Behavioral Matrix (BM), a way of structuring forest management specifications. A case study in southern Sweden is presented as an example.

Suggested Citation

  • Trubins, Renats & Jonsson, Ragnar & Wallin, Ida & Sallnäs, Ola, 2019. "Explicating behavioral assumptions in forest scenario modelling – the behavioral matrix approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 70-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:103:y:2019:i:c:p:70-78
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2017.07.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hengeveld, Geerten M. & Schüll, Elmar & Trubins, Renats & Sallnäs, Ola, 2017. "Forest Landscape Development Scenarios (FoLDS)–A framework for integrating forest models, owners' behaviour and socio-economic developments," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P2), pages 245-255.
    2. Mohren, G. M. J., 2003. "Large-scale scenario analysis in forest ecology and forest management," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 103-110, July.
    3. Carlsson, Julia & Eriksson, Ljusk Ola & Öhman, Karin & Nordström, Eva-Maria, 2015. "Combining scientific and stakeholder knowledge in future scenario development — A forest landscape case study in northern Sweden," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 122-134.
    4. Pang, Xi & Mörtberg, Ulla & Sallnäs, Ola & Trubins, Renats & Nordström, Eva-Maria & Böttcher, Hannes, 2017. "Habitat network assessment of forest bioenergy options using the landscape simulator LandSim – A case study of Kronoberg, southern Sweden," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 99-112.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lodin, Isak & Brukas, Vilis, 2021. "Ideal vs real forest management: Challenges in promoting production-oriented silvicultural ideals among small-scale forest owners in southern Sweden," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

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