Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios

Forest planners in former Eastern Block countries tend to provide conservative forecasts of timber supply, based on a rigid area control under the legislated rotation ages, and often assuming uniform forest management behaviour irrespective of the owner type. This study, in contrast, explores timber supply in a multi-disciplinary approach that analyses contextual factors and expands the space of future forest management options. Methodological steps include: (i) participatory development of qualitative scenarios, following different trajectories of contextual factors affecting forest management; (ii) identification of forest management programmes at the stand level; and (iii) modelling and economic assessment of future flows of timber at the landscape level. This research is carried out in a case study area (CSA) in central Lithuania containing 37,000ha of forest, of which 80% is under state ownership. The development of forest resources was simulated for four contextualised scenarios: Business as Usual, Efficiency and Reforms, Ecology, and Climate Change Mitigation. Six forest-management programs were constructed together with stakeholders to describe the behaviour of state forest managers and private forest owners under each scenario. All four scenarios led to increased timber supply, largely due to the high proportion of middle-aged and premature stands in current forests. Notably, the present-day approach of rigid area control prioritises a steady timber supply through an evener age-class structure but largely fails on the last point. Our scenario analysis shows that relaxation of legislative requirements not only leads to increased long-term contribution to economic welfare but also enables achievement of evener age-class distributions.