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Guiding preventative wildland fire mitigation policy and decisions with an economic modeling system

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  • Stockmann, Keith
  • Burchfield, James
  • Calkin, Dave
  • Venn, Tyron

Abstract

The protection of private residences from wildland fire produces high levels of cost and safety risk to firefighters, especially with the expanding ex-urban settlement pattern in the wildland urban interface (WUI). Economic information on probable structure losses can help guide efficient wildfire management, policy, and investments. However, no single existing modeling tool is capable of accurately predicting existing wildland fire ignition risk to WUI residences, nor are there broadly accepted models to calculate needed investments to reduce risk to WUI structures. To fill this void, a representative set of rural residences in western Montana was selected to estimate a baseline, 30-year wildland fire ignition hazard and the cost effectiveness of optional investments to reduce risk from wildfire damage to these residences. The study applied a modeling system combining outputs from a structure ignition assessment model (SIAM) with wildland fire probabilities from an ecological disturbance model (SIMPPLLE). Results indicate that the probability of structure damage to a home when a fire visits a residence is 1.0 under conditions of extreme wildland fire weather. This contrasts with the low probabilities (0-0.05) that wildland fire will reach vegetation surrounding the residence. Cost-effectiveness analysis of two suites of preventative mitigation strategies demonstrated that home mitigation zone investments (modifying houses or fuels within 30.5Â m (100Â ft) of a residence) are generally more cost effective in reducing risk to WUI structures than investments in silvicultural operations in surrounding forests (within 2.4Â km (1.5Â mi) of homes). The effectiveness of the mitigation options in modifying average home loss due to wildfire ranges from negative 19.6% to positive 63% (some silvicultural treatments did increase the probability of wildfire in simulations). While both home ignition zone mitigations and silvicultural treatments can markedly reduce wildland fire hazard estimates, the former appear to provide a more pronounced reduction in hazard as correlated with expenditures.

Suggested Citation

  • Stockmann, Keith & Burchfield, James & Calkin, Dave & Venn, Tyron, 2010. "Guiding preventative wildland fire mitigation policy and decisions with an economic modeling system," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 147-154, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:12:y:2010:i:2:p:147-154
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Loomis, John, 2004. "Do nearby forest fires cause a reduction in residential property values?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 149-157, November.
    2. Geoffrey H. Donovan & Patricia A. Champ & David T. Butry, 2007. "Wildfire Risk and Housing Prices: A Case Study from Colorado Springs," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(2), pages 217-233.
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    1. Andrea Colantoni & Gianluca Egidi & Giovanni Quaranta & Roberto D’Alessandro & Sabato Vinci & Rosario Turco & Luca Salvati, 2020. "Sustainable Land Management, Wildfire Risk and the Role of Grazing in Mediterranean Urban-Rural Interfaces: A Regional Approach from Greece," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Venn, Tyron J. & Quiggin, John, 2017. "Early evacuation is the best bushfire risk mitigation strategy for south-eastern Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(3), July.
    3. Eliott, Martyn G. & Venn, Tyron J. & Lewis, Tom & Farrar, Michael & Srivastava, Sanjeev K., 2021. "A prescribed fire cost model for public lands in south-east Queensland," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Paveglio, Travis B. & Stasiewicz, Amanda M. & Edgeley, Catrin M., 2021. "Understanding support for regulatory approaches to wildfire management and performance of property mitigations on private lands," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    5. Galiana-Martín Luis, 2017. "Spatial Planning Experiences for Vulnerability Reduction in the Wildland-Urban Interface in Mediterranean European Countries," European Countryside, Sciendo, vol. 9(3), pages 577-593, September.
    6. Florec, Veronique & Pannell, David J. & Burton, Michael P. & Kelso, Joel & Mellor, Drew & Milne, George, 2012. "Economic analysis of prescribed burning for wildfire management in Western Australia," Working Papers 135305, University of Western Australia, School of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

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