IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v64y2024ics1544612324005257.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are fiscal rules efficient on public debt restraint in the presence of shadow economy?

Author

Listed:
  • Mara, Eugenia Ramona
  • Maran, Raluca

Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of the role played by fiscal rules and the shadow economy in the evolution of public debt. Thus, we investigate the effectiveness of fiscal rules in limiting the level of indebtedness in the presence of a shadow economy (SE) in 194 advanced, emerging, and developing countries over the period 1995–2021. The SE harms public revenue collection and leads to an increase in the budget deficit. Better management of public finances is difficult to achieve in the presence of a SE. We find that governments should try to limit the spread of SE to achieve sustainable public finance and maintain public indebtedness within reasonable limits. The results from the cointegration technique suggest that in the long run, the efficiency of fiscal rules is conditioned by the decrease of the SE, and only after this prerequisite is attained can a favorable evolution of public debt be expected. The empirical findings confirm the significant contribution of the SE to the public debt increase and the ineffectiveness of the fiscal rules applied.

Suggested Citation

  • Mara, Eugenia Ramona & Maran, Raluca, 2024. "Are fiscal rules efficient on public debt restraint in the presence of shadow economy?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:64:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324005257
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105495
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324005257
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105495?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elgin, Ceyhun & Uras, Burak R., 2013. "Public debt, sovereign default risk and shadow economy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 628-640.
    2. Zhang, Qiuyue & Que, Jiangjing & Qin, Xiuting, 2023. "Regional financial technology and shadow banking activities of non-financial firms: Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Leandro Medina & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Global Database and the Interaction with the Official One," CESifo Working Paper Series 7981, CESifo.
    4. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    5. Stephen Tapp, 2013. "The Use and Effectiveness of Fiscal Rules in Canadian Provinces," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 39(1), pages 45-70, March.
    6. Lars P. Feld & Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2005. "Sustainable Fiscal Policy in a Federal System: Switzerland as an Example," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Hanspeter Kriesi & Peter Farago & Martin Kohli & Milad Zarin-Nejadan (ed.), Contemporary Switzerland, chapter 12, pages 281-296, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    8. Hallerberg, Mark & Strauch, Rolf & von Hagen, Jurgen, 2007. "The design of fiscal rules and forms of governance in European Union countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 338-359, June.
    9. Straub, Stéphane, 2005. "Informal sector: The credit market channel," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 299-321, December.
    10. González-Fernández, Marcos & González-Velasco, Carmen, 2014. "Shadow economy, corruption and public debt in Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1101-1117.
    11. Signe Krogstrup & Sébastien Wälti, 2008. "Do fiscal rules cause budgetary outcomes?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 123-138, July.
    12. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Victor Owusu-Nantwi & Gloria Owusu-Nantwi, 2021. "Public debt, corruption and shadow economy in Africa: an empirical analysis," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(1), pages 184-202, June.
    14. Cooray, Arusha & Dzhumashev, Ratbek & Schneider, Friedrich, 2017. "How Does Corruption Affect Public Debt? An Empirical Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 115-127.
    15. Rafael S. M. Ribeiro & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2019. "Government expenditure ceiling and public debt dynamics in a demand-led macromodel," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 363-389, July.
    16. Thi Anh Nhu Nguyen & Thi Thuy Huong Luong, 2020. "Corruption, Shadow Economy and Economic Growth - Evidence from Emerging and Developing Asian Economies," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 16(4), pages 85-94.
    17. Constantin Mellios & Eric Paget-Blanc, 2006. "Which factors determine sovereign credit ratings?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 361-377.
    18. Michael Christl & Monika Köppl‐Turyna & Dénes Kucsera, 2020. "Determinants of Public‐Sector Efficiency: Decentralization and Fiscal Rules," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 253-290, May.
    19. Olivier Blanchard & Alvaro Leandro & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2021. "Redesigning EU fiscal rules: from rules to standards," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 36(106), pages 195-236.
    20. Aloys Prinz & Hanno Beck, 2012. "In the Shadow of Public Debt: Are there Relations between Public Debt and the Shadow Economy?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 221-236, September.
    21. Kumar, Alok, 2023. "Financial market imperfections, informality and government spending multipliers," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    22. Bergman, U. Michael & Hutchison, Michael M. & Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard, 2016. "Promoting sustainable public finances in the European Union: The role of fiscal rules and government efficiency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-19.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P., 2018. "(Un-)intended effects of fiscal rules," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-191.
    2. Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Fiscal Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 10765, CESifo.
    3. Tran, My Thi Ha, 2021. "Public Sector Management And Corruption In Asean Plus Six," OSF Preprints stxw4, Center for Open Science.
    4. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Kea Baret & Alexandru Minea, 2021. "National fiscal rules and fiscal discipline in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(20), pages 2337-2359, April.
    5. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Rules - 85 Years' Experience in Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 6063, CESifo.
    6. Heinemann, Friedrich & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Yeter, Mustafa, 2018. "Do fiscal rules constrain fiscal policy? A meta-regression-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 69-92.
    7. Nahid Sultana & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Rasheda Khanam, 2022. "Informal Sector Employment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries in SDG Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Toan Khanh Tran Pham, 2024. "Does government effectiveness moderate public spending on education–shadow economy nexus in ASEAN countries?," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(3), pages 761-781, September.
    9. Thomas Brändle & Marc Elsener, 2024. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey of recent evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-38, December.
    10. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Bambe, Bao-We-Wal & Combes, Jean-Louis & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2024. "Original sin: Fiscal rules and government debt in foreign currency in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Thi Anh Nhu Nguyen & Thi Thuy Huong Luong, 2021. "Fiscal Policy, Institutional Quality, and Public Debt: Evidence from Transition Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-15, September.
    12. Juan Pablo Jiménez & Leonardo Letelier & Ignacio Ruelas & Jaime Bonet-Morón, 2021. "Reglas fiscales subnacionales: Revisión empírica, experiencias internacionales y sus desafíos en la nueva institucionalidad fiscal post COVID," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 300, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Căpraru, Bogdan & Georgescu, George & Sprincean, Nicu, 2022. "Do independent fiscal institutions cause better fiscal outcomes in the European Union?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    14. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    15. Jocelyne Zoumenou & Antonia Lopez Villavicencio, 2024. "Do Binding Fiscal Rules Enhance Fiscal Stability? Evidence from European Union Countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2024-29, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    16. del Castillo, Ernesto & Cabral, René, 2024. "Subnational public debt sustainability in Mexico: Is the new fiscal rule working?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. López-Herrera, Carmen & Cordero, José M. & Pedraja-Chaparro, Francisco & Polo, Cristina, 2023. "Fiscal rules and their influence on public sector efficiency," MPRA Paper 119018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ho, Sy Hoa, 2016. "Long and short-runs determinants of the sovereign CDS spread in emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 579-590.
    19. Julia del Amo Valor & Marcos Martín Mateos & Diego Martínez López & Javier J. Pérez, 2023. "Is the European economic governance framework too “complex”? A critical discussion," Working Papers 2023-06, FEDEA.
    20. Mihaela Onofrei & Anca Gavriluţă (Vatamanu) & Ionel Bostan & Florin Oprea & Gigel Paraschiv & Cristina Mihaela Lazăr, 2020. "The Implication of Fiscal Principles and Rules on Promoting Sustainable Public Finances in the EU Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; fiscal rules; shadow economy; panel cointegration; FMOLS; DOLS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • D69 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Other
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:64:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324005257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.