IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v55y2023ipas1544612323002386.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-frequency volatility connectedness between fossil energy and agricultural commodities: Comparing the COVID-19 pandemic with the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, You
  • Ren, Wenting
  • Wan, Jieru
  • Liu, Xiaoxue

Abstract

This paper uses the TVP-VAR frequency connectedness approach to compare the volatility connectedness induced by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Both shocks induce increased connectedness, but the pandemic shock is stronger. High-frequency and medium-frequency connectedness dominate during the early stage of the pandemic, while low-frequency connectedness dominates during the conflict. Moreover, fossil energy is the risk transmitter in the early phase of the pandemic, while agricultural commodities become the transmitter during the conflict. We should take precautions against risks contagion from fossil energy and agricultural commodities to the post-conflict economy, and prevent inflation and economic slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, You & Ren, Wenting & Wan, Jieru & Liu, Xiaoxue, 2023. "Time-frequency volatility connectedness between fossil energy and agricultural commodities: Comparing the COVID-19 pandemic with the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323002386
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103866
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323002386
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103866?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jozef Baruník & Tomáš Křehlík, 2018. "Measuring the Frequency Dynamics of Financial Connectedness and Systemic Risk," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 271-296.
    2. Křehlík, Tomáš & Baruník, Jozef, 2017. "Cyclical properties of supply-side and demand-side shocks in oil-based commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 208-218.
    3. Fang, Yi & Shao, Zhiquan, 2022. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and volatility risk of commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Zhang, Chuanguo & Qu, Xuqin, 2015. "The effect of global oil price shocks on China's agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 354-364.
    5. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on multi-scale asymmetric spillovers between food and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Zhu, Bo & Lin, Renda & Deng, Yuanyue & Chen, Pingshe & Chevallier, Julien, 2021. "Intersectoral systemic risk spillovers between energy and agriculture under the financial and COVID-19 crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    7. Umar, Zaghum & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 on commodity markets volatility: Analyzing time-frequency relations between commodity prices and coronavirus panic levels," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Wang, Yihan & Bouri, Elie & Fareed, Zeeshan & Dai, Yuhui, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and the systemic risk in the commodity markets under the war in Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    9. Furuoka, Fumitaka & Yaya, OlaOluwa Simon & Ling, Pui Kiew & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh & Islam, M. Nazmul, 2023. "Transmission of risks between energy and agricultural commodities: Frequency time-varying VAR, asymmetry and portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Jiang, Wei & Chen, Yunfei, 2022. "The time-frequency connectedness among metal, energy and carbon markets pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. David C. Broadstock & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2022. "Minimum Connectedness Portfolios and the Market for Green Bonds: Advocating Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) Activity," Springer Books, in: Christos Floros & Ioannis Chatziantoniou (ed.), Applications in Energy Finance, chapter 0, pages 217-253, Springer.
    12. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Information connectedness of international crude oil futures: Evidence from SC, WTI, and Brent," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    13. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2014. "Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 22-35.
    14. Debdatta Pal & Subrata Kumar Mitra, 2020. "Time-frequency dynamics of return spillover from crude oil to agricultural commodities," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(49), pages 5426-5445, October.
    15. Hung, Ngo Thai, 2021. "Oil prices and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Integration and Risk Transmission in the Market for Crude Oil: A Time-Varying Parameter Frequency Connectedness Approach," Working Papers 202147, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Just, Małgorzata & Echaust, Krzysztof, 2022. "Dynamic spillover transmission in agricultural commodity markets: What has changed after the COVID-19 threat?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    18. Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Bloch, Harry, 2016. "Explaining commodity prices through asymmetric oil shocks: Evidence from nonlinear models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 34-48.
    19. Dahl, Roy Endré & Oglend, Atle & Yahya, Muhammad, 2020. "Dynamics of volatility spillover in commodity markets: Linking crude oil to agriculture," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    20. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    21. Lucotte, Yannick, 2016. "Co-movements between crude oil and food prices: A post-commodity boom perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 142-147.
    22. Aurélien Leroy & Yannick Lucotte, 2016. "Co-movements between crude oil and food prices: A post-commodity boom perspective," Post-Print hal-03528419, HAL.
    23. Umar, Zaghum & Polat, Onur & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the connectedness of financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    24. Mensi, Walid & Shafiullah, Muhammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Asymmetric spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and currency markets using high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    25. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Quantile risk spillovers between energy and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    26. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2018. "Risk spillover between energy and agricultural commodity markets: A dependence-switching CoVaR-copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 14-27.
    27. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2020. "Refined Measures of Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    28. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    29. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Karim, Sitara & Hasan, Mudassar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Nexus between oil shocks and agriculture commodities: Evidence from time and frequency domain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    30. Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Salah Uddin, Gazi, 2020. "U.S. equity and commodity futures markets: Hedging or financialization?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    31. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Di Gioia, Leonardo & Lamonaca, Emilia, 2021. "Price responsiveness of supply and acreage in the EU vegetable oil markets: Policy implications," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    32. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    33. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2021. "Inflation synchronization among the G7and China: The important role of oil inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    34. Jian Yang & Zheng Li & Hong Miao, 2021. "Volatility spillovers in commodity futures markets: A network approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(12), pages 1959-1987, December.
    35. Benlagha, Noureddine & Omari, Salaheddine El, 2022. "Connectedness of stock markets with gold and oil: New evidence from COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    36. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and dynamic connectedness between commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    37. Wan, Daoxia & Xue, Rui & Linnenluecke, Martina & Tian, Jinfang & Shan, Yuli, 2021. "The impact of investor attention during COVID-19 on investment in clean energy versus fossil fuel firms," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    38. Wang, Xunxiao, 2020. "Frequency dynamics of volatility spillovers among crude oil and international stock markets: The role of the interest rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    39. Kang, Sang Hoon & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "Exploring the time-frequency connectedness and network among crude oil and agriculture commodities V1," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    40. Luo, Jiawen & Ji, Qiang, 2018. "High-frequency volatility connectedness between the US crude oil market and China's agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-438.
    41. Mensi, Walid & Tiwari, Aviral & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H., 2017. "The dependence structure across oil, wheat, and corn: A wavelet-based copula approach using implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 122-139.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wan, Jieru & Yin, Libo & Wu, You, 2024. "Return and volatility connectedness across global ESG stock indexes: Evidence from the time-frequency domain analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 397-428.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Qian, Anqi, 2024. "Regional differences, dynamic evolution, and obstacle factors of cultivated land ecological security in China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Zhou, Xiaoran & Enilov, Martin & Parhi, Mamata, 2024. "Does oil spin the commodity wheel? Quantile connectedness with a common factor error structure across energy and agricultural markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Yan-Hong Yang & Ying-Hui Shao & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2024. "Quantile connectedness across BRICS and international grain futures markets: Insights from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Papers 2409.19307, arXiv.org.
    5. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2024. "Together in bad times? The effect of COVID-19 on inflation spillovers in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 316-331.
    7. El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M. & Li, Yanshuang & Xiong, Xiong, 2024. "Quantile time-frequency connectedness among G7 stock markets and clean energy markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 71-90.
    8. Wang, Min & Su, Yuquan, 2023. "How Russian-Ukrainian geopolitical risks affect Chinese commodity and financial markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    9. Piserà, Stefano & Chiaramonte, Laura & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Pichler, Flavio, 2024. "Firm systematic risk after the Russia–Ukraine invasion," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Xiaoran & Enilov, Martin & Parhi, Mamata, 2024. "Does oil spin the commodity wheel? Quantile connectedness with a common factor error structure across energy and agricultural markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Karim, Sitara & Hasan, Mudassar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Nexus between oil shocks and agriculture commodities: Evidence from time and frequency domain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yizhi & Vigne, Samuel A. & Ma, Zhenyu, 2023. "Alarming contagion effects: The dangerous ripple effect of extreme price spillovers across crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and agriculture futures markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Wan, Jieru & Yin, Libo & Wu, You, 2024. "Return and volatility connectedness across global ESG stock indexes: Evidence from the time-frequency domain analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 397-428.
    6. Polat, Onur & Ertuğrul, Hasan Murat & Sakarya, Burçhan & Akgül, Ali, 2024. "TVP-VAR based time and frequency domain food & energy commodities connectedness an analysis for financial/geopolitical turmoil episodes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    7. Noureddine Benlagha & Wafa Abdelmalek, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness between energy and agricultural commodities: insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(3), pages 781-825, September.
    8. Kočenda, Evžen & Moravcová, Michala, 2024. "Frequency volatility connectedness and portfolio hedging of U.S. energy commodities," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Quantile risk spillovers between energy and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Benlagha, Noureddine & Karim, Sitara & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A., 2022. "Risk connectedness between energy and stock markets: Evidence from oil importing and exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Shahzad, Umer & Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Ben Jabeur, Sami, 2023. "Investigating the spillovers between energy, food, and agricultural commodity markets: New insights from the quantile coherency approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 63-80.
    12. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on multi-scale asymmetric spillovers between food and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. repec:ags:ijag24:344838 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang, 2022. "Dynamic correlation between crude oil and agricultural futures markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1798-1849, August.
    15. Maitra, Debasish & Guhathakurta, Kousik & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "The good, the bad and the ugly relation between oil and commodities: An analysis of asymmetric volatility connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    16. Just, Margaret & Echaust, Krzysztof, 2023. "Price volatility transfer between agricultural and energy markets – the perspective of European markets during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war," Village and Agriculture (Wieś i Rolnictwo), Polish Academy of Sciences (IRWiR PAN), Institute of Rural and Agricultural Development, vol. 199(2), August.
    17. Tongshuai Qiao & Liyan Han, 2023. "COVID‐19 and tail risk contagion across commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 242-272, February.
    18. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    19. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Adeleke, Musefiu A. & Awodumi, Olabanji B. & Adewuyi, Adeolu O., 2022. "Return and volatility connectedness among commodity markets during major crises periods: Static and dynamic analyses with asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    21. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Time-frequency dependence and connectedness among global oil markets: Fresh evidence from higher-order moment perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323002386. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.