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Inflation and portfolio selection

Author

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  • Vukovic, Darko B.
  • Maiti, Moinak
  • Frömmel, Michael

Abstract

This study proposes and tests a portfolio selection model with inflation allocation lines (IAL) for corresponding capital allocation line (CAL) and utilities in several scenarios of crisis. The model is based on Markowitz's mean-variance (MV) theory, with modification of Tobin's portfolio utility function, and Sharpe's (1964) portfolio theory. The model introduces inflation as a significant factor. According to study results, empirically tested with least squares (OLS) and quantile regression models, the study verifies that under conditions of low and moderate inflation the investor chooses an optimal portfolio which generates the highest real returns (including borrowed funds). For the case of severe recession, the investor chooses a minimum variance portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Vukovic, Darko B. & Maiti, Moinak & Frömmel, Michael, 2022. "Inflation and portfolio selection," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s154461232200407x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Tobin, 1958. "Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 25(2), pages 65-86.
    2. W. R. M. Perraudin, 1987. "Inflation and Portfolio Choice," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(4), pages 739-759, December.
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    5. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation (and policy effectiveness)," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    7. Gilles Boevi Koumou, 2020. "Diversification and portfolio theory: a review," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(3), pages 267-312, September.
    8. John H Cochrane, 2022. "Portfolios for Long-Term Investors [Rare disasters and asset markets in the twentieth century]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-42.
    9. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    10. Rodríguez, Yeny E. & Gómez, Juan M. & Contreras, Javier, 2021. "Diversified behavioral portfolio as an alternative to Modern Portfolio Theory," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Solnik, Bruno H., 1978. "Inflation and Optimal Portfolio Choices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(5), pages 903-925, December.
    12. Bossone, Biagio, 2019. "The portfolio theory of inflation and policy (in)effectiveness," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-25.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Xiaoxia & Ma, Di & Choe, Kwang-Il, 2023. "Uncertain mean–variance portfolio model with inflation taking linear uncertainty distributions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 203-217.
    2. Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2023. "The inflation loop is not a myth," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    3. Bouri, Elie & Nekhili, Ramzi & Kinateder, Harald & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2023. "Expected inflation and U.S. stock sector indices: A dynamic time-scale tale from inflationary and deflationary crisis periods," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Mean-variance; Portfolio; Utility; JEL: G11; E22;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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