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Efficient estimation of expected stock price returns

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  • Madan, Dilip B.

Abstract

Daily asset returns are modeled using self decomposable limit laws and the structure is used to estimate the density of the uncentered data. Estimates of mean returns are a byproduct of the density estimate. Estimates of mean returns via density estimation have significantly lower standard errors when compared to estimates derived via the usual method of straight averaging.

Suggested Citation

  • Madan, Dilip B., 2017. "Efficient estimation of expected stock price returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 31-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:31-38
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2017.08.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    2. Madan, Dilip B & Seneta, Eugene, 1990. "The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 511-524, October.
    3. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Dilip B. Madan & Wim Schoutens & King Wang, 2017. "Measuring And Monitoring The Efficiency Of Markets," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(08), pages 1-32, December.
    2. Dilip B. Madan & Wim Schoutens, 2019. "Conic asset pricing and the costs of price fluctuations," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 29-58, March.
    3. Peter Bossaerts & Shijie Huang & Nitin Yadav, 2020. "Exploiting Distributional Temporal Difference Learning to Deal with Tail Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-20, October.
    4. Dilip B. Madan & Wim Schoutens, 2020. "Self‐similarity in long‐horizon returns," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1368-1391, October.
    5. Dilip B. Madan & King Wang, 2022. "Two sided efficient frontiers at multiple time horizons," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 327-353, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Variance gamma model; Digital moment estimation; Self decomposable laws; Limit laws;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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