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Self‐similarity in long‐horizon returns

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  • Dilip B. Madan
  • Wim Schoutens

Abstract

Asset returns incorporate new information via the effects of independent and possibly identically distributed random shocks. They may also incorporate long memory effects related to the concept of self‐similarity. The two approaches are here combined. In addition, methods are proposed for estimating the contribution of each component and evidence supporting the presence of both components in both the physical and risk‐neutral distributions is presented. Furthermore, it is shown that long‐horizon returns may be nonnormal when there is a self‐similar component. The presence of a self‐similar component also questions positive equity biases over the longer term.

Suggested Citation

  • Dilip B. Madan & Wim Schoutens, 2020. "Self‐similarity in long‐horizon returns," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1368-1391, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:mathfi:v:30:y:2020:i:4:p:1368-1391
    DOI: 10.1111/mafi.12269
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    2. Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2009. "The Shape and Term Structure of the Index Option Smirk: Why Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Models Work So Well," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 1914-1932, December.
    3. Dilip B. Madan & Wim Schoutens & King Wang, 2017. "Measuring And Monitoring The Efficiency Of Markets," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(08), pages 1-32, December.
    4. Dilip B. Madan, 2018. "Instantaneous portfolio theory," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 1345-1364, August.
    5. Küchler, Uwe & Tappe, Stefan, 2008. "Bilateral gamma distributions and processes in financial mathematics," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 261-283, February.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:753-778 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ľuboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2012. "Are Stocks Really Less Volatile in the Long Run?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 431-478, April.
    8. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2003. "The Finite Moment Log Stable Process and Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 753-777, April.
    9. Peter Carr & Dilip B. Madan, 2014. "Joint modeling of VIX and SPX options at a single and common maturity with risk management applications," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(11), pages 1125-1131, November.
    10. Jeanblanc, M. & Pitman, J. & Yor, M., 0. "Self-similar processes with independent increments associated with Lévy and Bessel processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 100(1-2), pages 223-231, July.
    11. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    12. Dilip B. Madan, 2015. "Estimating Parametric Models of Probability Distributions," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 823-831, September.
    13. Madan, Dilip B., 2017. "Efficient estimation of expected stock price returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 31-38.
    14. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    15. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
    16. Alexander Cherny & Dilip Madan, 2009. "New Measures for Performance Evaluation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2371-2406, July.
    17. E. Eberlein & F. zkan, 2003. "Time consistency of Levy models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 40-50.
    18. Madan, Dilip B & Seneta, Eugene, 1990. "The Variance Gamma (V.G.) Model for Share Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 511-524, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Madan, Dilip B. & Wang, King, 2021. "The structure of financial returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    2. Dilip B. Madan & King Wang, 2022. "Two sided efficient frontiers at multiple time horizons," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 327-353, September.

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